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Post by smash on Jan 18, 2008 12:27:02 GMT -5
Okay, my two for tonight are:
Cilic over Gonzalez @ 3.70 (0,50 units) - took this last night, as I expected the prices to be slashed as low as 2.50-2.60 by today...which seems to be happening. Not only is Cilic in his best form, but he has also fared quite well against the big-hitting "loose cannon" style match-up (e.g. 2007 wins over Haase, Gulbis and Dlouhy). At the very least, the powerful 19-year old should be able to run Gonzalez close, with some big serving capable of keeping him in the sets. First major of test of 2008 for Gonzalez, imo, and he definitely isn't in the same top form he displayed at this same point, last year.
Blake (over Grosjean) x Berdych (over Monaco) @ 1.70 (1,80 units) - a little bit risky considering the temperament of both guys, and the class of their opponents...but I expect each to win, even if it isn't pretty. Grosjean has struggled more with the big-hitting "loose cannon" style match-up in recent years (e.g. Tursunov, Garcia-Lopez), and Blake seems to be in fine form thus far. Monaco seems more vulnerable against the powerful players (e.g. Gonzalez, Haas, Querrey), and his (unnecessary) R2 marathon with Delic (who possesses far inferior groundstrokes / return to Berdych) is a major concern for me.
I also like Baggy over Hewitt. Hewitt's only real shot is to out-grind the Cypriot, and Baggy executes the fine level of controlled aggression (and good serving) he demonstrated the other day, against Safin, I see him gradually overpowering the Aussie over 3-4 sets. Will only play it if both of the above bets win (and that is fairly unlikely).
BOL to everyone playing tonight.
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Post by sztywny on Jan 18, 2008 15:13:12 GMT -5
Hi guys.Today is very good day and I think my picks will bring u some moeny again
Nalbandian, D(-4.5 games) - Ferrero, J-C 1.85 Unibet
This handicap is nothing for me in playing best of 5.Nalby is vary good player on this surface what he showed in the end of last year when he beat Federer 2 many times.He has good service and the best two handed backhand in ATP.JCF isn't fast court specialist and I'm suprised that he is in this round.For me he hasn't any chances against good form Nalbandian.I bet handi because Nalby has small back problems and it can be void if it will make bigger
Hewitt, L - Baghdatis, M 2.20 Unibet
I thinked before odds showed about 1.7 for Hewitt.I see now 2.20 and I am very happy because there are nice odds.Baggy played 5 sets match against Safin and he lost much health in this game.He has small problems with health and if this game will be long too he can have huge problems with hosts players.I think Leyton will show young Cypriot who is better and will win this game after good match.
P.S Jerus msg me on PM your msg adress please
Good luck
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Post by lephter on Jan 18, 2008 15:28:04 GMT -5
ferrero over Nalbandian @2.75 average odds for 3/10 (minimum odds worth betting @2.45)
Ferrero reached the final in Auckland last weekend where he played some inspiring tennis al through out the week. His forhand doesn't let him down and he is able to control the rallies from the back . His number of unforced errors dropped as well in comparison to other times when i saw him play and overall,i believe he improved during the off break or he is just in a "hungry-for-tennis" period. Head to head between these two is tied at 2-2 with the last two wins in Ferrero's account. Nalbandian showed a not so strong tennis during the 2nd round against Australian Peter Luczak and he dropped the 1st set 6-4. The reason behind it was perhaps the Australian's ability to dictate play and run Nalbandian down which might have surprised the Argentine a little.Eventually Nalbandian started to impose his play and came through in 4 sets in the end. I am not particularly fond on betting on Ferrero's matches(his mind begins to wonder from time to time) but today i just cannot agree with the given odds. For me it is more of a 57-43 match in favour of Nalbandian. These 2 guys have similar styles and i believe the winner on the day will be the one who will make the less unforced errors. If Nalbandian doesn't improve his play in comparison to his match against Luczak,i can only see one winner here.
P.S:One can cover for the stake back if Ferrero gets in front early...maybe wins the first set...Nalbandian will be up to
@2.00--@2,10
Good Luck
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Post by sLOw on Jan 18, 2008 16:39:54 GMT -5
YTD: 3-1 (+ 2,80 units)
Gonzalez V CILIC @3.00 (2,00 units)
I rate Cilic as one of the best young guns out there. He has a big serve and solid groundstrokes as well as nice touch at the net. He is the type of player Gonzalez wouldn't want to face as his streaky game could easily be exposed by the croat.
Berdych V MONACO @4.2 (0,50 units)
If Monaco is capable to return Berdych's huge serve we have a match on our hands. A bit worried about the physical state of Monaco as he has played a huge 5 setter two days ago.
Baghdatis V HEWITT @2.34 (1,50 units)
Hewitt cleary needs to improve to come close to Baggy but yet I rate his chances much higher than the odds suggest. Hewitt infront of a home crowd should not be priced up that high.
BOL
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swish
New Member
Posts: 8
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Post by swish on Jan 19, 2008 10:25:47 GMT -5
nice to see you bounce back jez
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Post by sLOw on Jan 19, 2008 14:19:11 GMT -5
YTD: 5-2 (+ 8,31 units)
Davydenko V YOUZHNY @2.20 (1,50 units)
Youzhny is playing some great tennis this season. He has been impressive on serve. Davydenko wasn't playing too badly either but I sense a complete blowout here. Youzhny has got way too much game for his fellow countryman.
Gasquet V TSONGA @3.00 (0,75 units)
Gasquet has been pretty impressive so far, beating the crap out of Feli and totally controlled the match against Andreev despite the loss of the third set. Tsonga has probably posted the biggest win of his career by beating Muzza in the first round. As we know Tsonga is a very streaky player so I have adjusted the stake to my liking.
Nadal V Mathieu MATHIEU TO WIN A SET @2.00 (2,00 units)
I still remember the great match at Roland Garros back in 2006 when Mathieu played out of his mind and had him nearly beaten. Mathieu has all the shots that can hurt Nadal for 1-2 sets as he usually doesn't really perform on a constant basis. I think he could clinch the first set.
BOL
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Post by sztywny on Jan 19, 2008 15:50:45 GMT -5
Hi guys.Today is very good day and I think my picks will bring u some moeny again Nalbandian, D(-4.5 games) - Ferrero, J-C 1.85 Unibet This handicap is nothing for me in playing best of 5.Nalby is vary good player on this surface what he showed in the end of last year when he beat Federer 2 many times.He has good service and the best two handed backhand in ATP.JCF isn't fast court specialist and I'm suprised that he is in this round.For me he hasn't any chances against good form Nalbandian.I bet handi because Nalby has small back problems and it can be void if it will make bigger Hewitt, L - Baghdatis, M 2.20 Unibet Pick won My balance:4/5 For today I chose sth nice picks for me. Mikhail Youzhny v Nikolay Davydenko 1.71 5Dimes I think Denko will win easy this game.He is much better here than Misha.He didn't lost any set against 3 good servers from France.He is here in form and I think he can reach semi final.He likes playing against bombers like Youzhny.He plays tactical and he can make rivale to tired by much running.In H2H is 3-0 for Koli and he should show here who is nr 1. in Russia. My bet of the day is: Mathieu-Nadal 6.3 Pinnacle Rafa has some problems here: I don't know what is happening here in Australia," Nadal said. "I really don't know, but, in the afternoon if I am in the room, I sleep two hours. I never sleep anywhere but here. "Normally I start very hard, but today I really don't know. I started the match without a very good tactic. "I started the match watching my rival, not worried about playing my game and trying to play aggressive with my forehand. He said it after game vs Simon.I watched game Nadal-Mathieu in Montreal and Frenchman looked better in first set this game.If he will have good mentality he can trashed Rafa who isn't in his best,ane he is here because he had good draw.He had problems against Troicki....lol I think this odds I must take.HUGE VALUE
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Post by smash on Jan 19, 2008 19:04:31 GMT -5
Cilic over Gonzalez @ 3.70 (0,50 units) Won!Blake (over Grosjean) x Berdych (over Monaco) @ 1.70 (1,80 units) Won!YTD: 9-21-1 (-5,77 units [-19.3% ROI]). nice to see you bounce back jez Thanks mate. Freely admit that I got very lucky with my MUG double...big thanks to Blake for that incredible, and unfancied, comeback! Won't be making a bet like that again in a hurry lol! Nice work today Lo...fantastic takings!
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Post by smash on Jan 19, 2008 19:12:04 GMT -5
Struggling to find value / take sides for tonight's card, so I won't be betting anything.
Ferrer and Nalbandian wins are, imo, virtually formalities. I think Nadal will get past Mathieu, although it may not be pretty. Tsonga certainly has the weapons to hurt Gasquet (and should benefit if the match is played under a roof), but, equally, I consider Richie's game to be a bit of a bad match for him...and, ultimately, I'm expecting him to come through. Davydenko is usually fairly reliable in Slams, but I'm a little worried by the threat that Youzhny presents...especially if he can latch onto Davydenko's weaker serving (than in 2007). Not tempted enough by either man's odds. Finally, I'm not prepared to fade Kohli regardless of the fact that the solid nature of Jarkko's game makes him, potentially, a much greater threat to him, than Roddick...generally, I don't like to fade a red-hot player, and Kohli REALLY impressed me the other day.
BOL to everyone playing!
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Post by sLOw on Jan 19, 2008 19:16:22 GMT -5
Nice hits J!
Should be a great night to watch tennis!
BOL
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Post by sLOw on Jan 19, 2008 19:27:36 GMT -5
YTD: 5-2 (+ 8,31 units)Davydenko V YOUZHNY @2.20 (1,50 units)Youzhny is playing some great tennis this season. He has been impressive on serve. Davydenko wasn't playing too badly either but I sense a complete blowout here. Youzhny has got way too much game for his fellow countryman. Gasquet V TSONGA @3.00 (0,75 units)Gasquet has been pretty impressive so far, beating the crap out of Feli and totally controlled the match against Andreev despite the loss of the third set. Tsonga has probably posted the biggest win of his career by beating Muzza in the first round. As we know Tsonga is a very streaky player so I have adjusted the stake to my liking. Nadal V Mathieu MATHIEU TO WIN A SET @2.00 (2,00 units)I still remember the great match at Roland Garros back in 2006 when Mathieu played out of his mind and had him nearly beaten. Mathieu has all the shots that can hurt Nadal for 1-2 sets as he usually doesn't really perform on a constant basis. I think he could clinch the first set. BOL Adding: I have found a pretty interesting special bet on Nadal-Mathieu. Nadal V Mathieu Over 170,5 minutes @1.85 (1,50 units)Fairly confident that it will last longer than 3 hours! BOL
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Post by lephter on Jan 19, 2008 23:16:12 GMT -5
ferrero over Nalbandian @2.75 average odds for 3/10(minimum odds worth betting @2.45) Ferrero reached the final in Auckland last weekend where he played some inspiring tennis al through out the week. His forhand doesn't let him down and he is able to control the rallies from the back . His number of unforced errors dropped as well in comparison to other times when i saw him play and overall,i believe he improved during the off break or he is just in a "hungry-for-tennis" period. Head to head between these two is tied at 2-2 with the last two wins in Ferrero's account. Nalbandian showed a not so strong tennis during the 2nd round against Australian Peter Luczak and he dropped the 1st set 6-4. The reason behind it was perhaps the Australian's ability to dictate play and run Nalbandian down which might have surprised the Argentine a little.Eventually Nalbandian started to impose his play and came through in 4 sets in the end. I am not particularly fond on betting on Ferrero's matches(his mind begins to wonder from time to time) but today i just cannot agree with the given odds. For me it is more of a 57-43 match in favour of Nalbandian. These 2 guys have similar styles and i believe the winner on the day will be the one who will make the less unforced errors. If Nalbandian doesn't improve his play in comparison to his match against Luczak,i can only see one winner here. P.S:One can cover for the stake back if Ferrero gets in front early...maybe wins the first set...Nalbandian will be up to @2.00--@2,10 Good Luck Ferrero WIN +5,25 units Never in doubt...Nalbandian had no chance today against a very solid Ferrero.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 20, 2008 12:58:20 GMT -5
YTD: 7-2-2 (+11,61 units)
Blake V CILIC @2.40 (2,00 units)
Cilic eats those kind of players alive. Blake has played well so far but was forced to 5 sets against Grosjean which shouldn't have happened.
Ferrer V FERRERO @2.80 ( 2,00 units)
Huh? Ferrero is back to his best again and CANNOT be that big against Ferrer. I expect Ferrero to reach the semi here and force Federer to 5 sets.
Djokovic V Hewitt HEWITT TO WIN A SET @1.70 (0,75 units)
Hewitt won't go out without winning a set infront of his crowd, forget about that. He'll put up a nice fight and maybe cause an upset!
BOL
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Post by smash on Jan 20, 2008 17:50:03 GMT -5
Nice work lephter and Lo!
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Post by smash on Jan 20, 2008 18:04:15 GMT -5
Betting two tonight. Using Djokovic twice...obviously this is rather MUG-ish betting, but I really don't see him losing. If he does, I accept the consequences!
Blake x Djokovic @ 2.07 (1,03 units) - one of the FEW occasions I'll virtually ignore a match-up and, instead, oppose the market. Cilic seems to like the big-hitting "loose cannon" style match-up (e.g. Gulbis, Haase and Gonzalez) and Blake presents largely the same challenge...but a more accurate price for the 19-year old would be around 2.75 odds (and not 2.40s). Sure, Blake isn't all that reliable, and he has lost a number of times at this stage of a GS...but the American will be Cilic's toughest match, on paper, in this year's event, so far, and he also has far greater experience etc, than the Croat. For Cilic, this is all still pretty new, and he is now in the public eye...no longer has the luxury of being able to slip through under the radar. While he has obvious talent, most aspects of his game lack any real stability...his serve is usually erratic, and his groundstrokes can be rather erroneous at times. Can find value in Blake at 1.65+ odds.
Ferrer -3.5 x Djokovic @ 2.20 (0,97 units) - both are in-form players, and Ferrero's results this year are certainly impressing me. However, Ferrer will be his greatest test of the new season, and he will have to execute a near-perfect game of controlled aggression to break through his opponent's outstanding defence...something he has struggled to do against Hewitt (3-6) and Nadal (1-5), for instance. I have little doubt that JCF can take a set, but I'm expecting Ferrer to win, steam-rolling JCF in one set, to get the handicap back on track.
Good luck everyone playing!
...a little bit scared opposing Lo, especially considering how hot he is at the moment! Hopefully JCF wins 7/6 7/6 1/6 1/6 6/4 to keep both of us happy! ;D
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