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Post by smash on Jan 13, 2008 15:26:56 GMT -5
Hey limpasterix, welcome to the forum glad you like it! I may answer your question! J usually doesn't trade, correct me if I am wrong... Hi limpasterix, welcome! Lo answered your question perfectly...I don't usually trade! Don't have the time, to be honest, and I only bet for fun, so it's not like I'm trying to make a serious income out of it. To elaborate on my answer, anything I post here is an official bet, and counts towards the record I'm updating. I may decide to trade the same match, privately, but that will have no impact on the record I keep here. I've not had a good start to the year, but, for anyone who knows me from elsewhere, I'm really fond of grass and indoor tennis...and that is usually very good to me. Hard and clay are my weakest surfaces, so my main aim this year is to try to get something more positive out of them. Good luck!
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Post by smash on Jan 13, 2008 15:28:30 GMT -5
boruh, could you please post the sources? Thanks! Timotheus has been posting the same stuff over at MTF, but sources are going to be hard to come by in all honesty! I'm guessing some of this was visible in broadcasted matches? Anyway, thanks for the heads up boruh, very decent of you.
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Post by smash on Jan 13, 2008 16:39:22 GMT -5
Like the plays J! I have put up a lay on Murray as always as I expect him to need some time to get into the match, BOL Think you've got the right idea there, mate...looks a potentially nice match to trade. If I were around, I'd be also looking to trade Baker/Karlovic...as long as Jamie doesn't surrender an early break, I find it hard to believe that his odds won't come in. BOL
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Post by sLOw on Jan 13, 2008 16:41:19 GMT -5
Cheers, well I mean it's not what I'd call a great card today but the dogs I'm looking into are:
TSONGA; once he is in the lead I will green up the book and move all the potential profit on Muzza
KOUBEK; looking for a small trade here, nothing big. Carlos won't play his best stuff for 2 hours in a row, so this should get be nice and easy, expecting 20 minutes of work to generate a decent profit
YOUNG; probably going to let it ride, perfect matchup for TheDon, he loves to play the big servers and has a pretty decent record against lefties. Berrer will be too inconsistent too overcome the young gun!
I might lay Nadal, first round of a slam, new surface anything can happen, no?
BOL to you guys, wishing you a profitable f'night
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Post by sLOw on Jan 13, 2008 16:45:42 GMT -5
Like the plays J! I have put up a lay on Murray as always as I expect him to need some time to get into the match, BOL Think you've got the right idea there, mate...looks a potentially nice match to trade. If I were around, I'd be also looking to trade Baker/Karlovic...as long as Jamie doesn't surrender an early break, I find it hard to believe that his odds won't come in. BOL Cheers mate, that should be a cracker ;D How does Baker play? How would I trade this match? Something like... Lay Karlovic (return) - 1.2 Back Karlovic (on serve) - 1.24 Lay Karlovic (return) - 1.19 Back Karlovic (on serve) - 1.23 .... .... .... I would need to do this approx. 10 service games in a row without a single break to double my initial stake, funny as hell ;D I'll probably lay the winner of the first set
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Post by sLOw on Jan 14, 2008 4:53:00 GMT -5
My godness, that was a disaster. Muzz played bad, even worse than I have expected him to. Serves me right as I blew all my potential profit on him. Had I let my initial bet ride, I'd find myself up by a huge 4 figure profit... but instead of that I've just made a small trade on Koubek.
Card for tomorrow looks pretty bad, not sure if I like anything!
BOL
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Post by smash on Jan 14, 2008 9:31:18 GMT -5
Berdych to win UNDER 3.5 singles matches @ 1.80 (1,80 units) Void. Here is my opportunity to let you know how UNIBET likes to bend the rules, just in case you're thinking about opening up an account with them: Dear Customer, We regret to inform you that the bet on Over/Under in Australian Open Specials (Men & Women)was declared voided because of a wrongly declared conditions. The stated criteria ('How many singles matches will the player win?') was wrong and should have been 'How many singles matches will the player play?'
We would like to apologise for the inconvenience caused. Thank you for your cooperation and do not hesitate to contact us once again if you require further assistance. Best Regards,
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Post by sLOw on Jan 14, 2008 14:55:40 GMT -5
Ouch...
I have chosen Baghdatis-Johansson to be the match on which I will focus for today. Baghdatis leads their H2H with a win back in 2006 (7-6 7-6). Johansson played some brilliant tennis in Doha and the Australian Open is the tournament he performs his very best. Placed a lay on Baghdatis pre-match to trade out later on!
Once this one has come in I have a strong lean on Rochus to beat the overrated Querrey at ridiculous odds, will probably be one of my biggest bets of the year!
BOL
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Post by smash on Jan 14, 2008 18:57:05 GMT -5
Will update all records after today's action, but here are my Tuesday bets, with short analysis:
1 unit split on these 3 unfancied players:
Ram over Bolelli @ 2.24 (0,50 units) - Ram is a rather offensive player...big serve, powerful groundstrokes and good net play (only slight concern is slow change of direction). Bolelli doesn't seem to be so comfortable coping with power (e.g. 2007 defeats to Calleri, Berdych, Moodie and Soderling), and, as yet, he is still relatively unproven on hard courts. Ram has posted some encouraging results in the first couple of weeks of this year (qualified Chennai; qualified Aus Open), and if he keeps his cool, he should, largely, be able to stay with the flashy Italian. One set rules applies.
Isner over Santoro @ 3.20 (0,34 units) - yes, Santoro's slice and dice is potentially lethal on this surface...and yes, the Frenchman does tend to carve serve-volleyers up. However, there is a point at which people can get a little carried away with how they expect a match to unfold...I honestly wouldn't say that Santoro is that big a favourite to be trading at 1.55s. Let's take a look at Isner's assets - a huge 1st serve; possibly the best 2nd serve in the game. Obviously he isn't nimble around the court, his return isn't all that reliable, and his groundstrokes aren't all that impressive...but he is capable of stringing together enough winning returns to break once in a while / move into a mini-break tiebreak lead...so, unless Santoro is really sharp, any slight lapse of concentration could be costly. The Frenchman doesn't have the biggest serve out there; the balls are heavy (favouring the bigger strikers); if Isner can nick the first set, Santoro will have a longer fight on his hands, in heat...for someone of 35 years of age, it isn't as easy as some may assume. Can't give John less than 40% chance, especially if he serves well. One set rule applies.
Ventura over Del Potro @ 4.4 (0,16 units) - Ventura is relatively unproven on hard courts, but I'm not alone in believing that he has the ability to get a few reasonable results on them. The Spaniard has a fairly big (if erratic) serve, likes to dictate the points from the baseline, and isn't afraid to go for his shots. Obviously this can lead to him self-destructing, but, equally, it can make him a bigger force than people are expecting. Del Potro isn't the most solid of opponents, so there is no reason why Ventura should be completely overwhelmed in this encounter (indeed, I considered the +8.5 game handicap), and I guess I'm also speculating, slightly, on the Argentine's back injury (problem with a disc) which forced his withdrawal from Adelaide doubles and Sydney singles action. 1 set rule applies.
1 unit on each of these:
Querrey over Rochus @ 2.00 (1,00 unit) - sure, Querrey isn't in any great form, but the conditions here seem to be favouring the harder-hitting players, particularly as the balls are quite heavy. Rochus generally deals quite well with this type of match, but the Belgian has been experiencing problems with his shoulder for a couple of months now, requiring a cortisone injection just to keep his participation in Doha and Sydney, while needing to resort to anti-inflammatories after he felt pain in a recent training session. Querrey could do himself a lot of favours by finding 60%+ 1st serves, and not holding back on the return/mid-rally given that Rochus should struggle to generate as much pace with the balls. One set rules applies.
Almagro over Cilic @ 2.00 (1,00 unit) - both are pretty talented players, each with a big serve and ability to hit winners from anywhere at the back of the court. Both can be erratic and fairly unstable (mentally) but I'm fairly firm in my beliefs that Almagro is the stronger player, mentally and physically. The Spaniard possesses a more reliable 1st serve, more dangerous forehand and a fairly solid backhand (Cilic is fairly erratic in all departments)...sure he has, undoubtedly, under-performed at the Slams, so far, but Cilic, with a 0-5 record in best-of-5, actually has to prove that he can live with the big boys, on the biggest stages, before I can consider him a favourite in these matches. One set rule applies.
Tursunov -3 games over Malisse @ 1.85 (1,00 unit) - yep, Malisse has played the loose cannon players rather well (e.g. 2-0 Tursunov; 1-0 Gonzalez), but I'm willing to oppose him, this time, on account of Tursunov's relatively sharp late '07- early '08 form...when all parts of the Russian's game are working smoothly, it generally takes a solid player to stop him (something Malisse isn't). What's more, the Belgian is carrying a couple of niggling injuries (finger; knee), and I'm a little concerned at his fitness levels as, after an impressive R1 win over Nieminen, in Auckland, he slumped to a comfortable R2 defeat to Massu, hours later. While it is true that Tursunov struggles to follow up a good week (but he has had 3 days off this time!), he is one of the fittest players out there, and as long as he doesn't blow his load, I'll be surprised if he suffers any shocking set scorelines today, to ruin this handicap (I'm expecting him to win in 3 sets, maybe 4 at a push).
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Post by smash on Jan 15, 2008 13:13:04 GMT -5
Baker over Karlovic @ 6.50 (0,35 units) Lost. Dlouhy +9.5 games vs Roddick @ 1.95 (1,00 unit) Won!Dropshot Dlouhy at his brainless best, but covered the handicap with a 2.5 game differential. Schuettler over Clement @ 1.97 (1,00 unit) Won!Acasuso over Mahut @ 2.22 (0,50 units) Lost.Young over Berrer @ 2.18 (0,50 units) Lost. Ram over Bolelli @ 2.24 (0,50 units) Lost. Agonising. Isner over Santoro @ 3.20 (0,34 units) Lost.Big John never stood a chance! Ventura over Del Potro @ 4.4 (0,16 units) Lost.No problems for Del Pony. Querrey over Rochus @ 2.00 (1,00 unit) Won! Almagro over Cilic @ 2.00 (1,00 unit) Lost.AlMUGro at his best! Got this completely wrong...well done Cilic. Tursunov -3 games over Malisse @ 1.85 (1,00 unit) Won!Nice fightback from Dima, rounding off the handicap with a 6.0 game differential. YTD: 7-19-1 (-7,38 units [-27.7% ROI]). Up on the Australian Open by only 0,50 units, and I have decided to revert back to my original staking/betting plan...to be more selective with my bets.
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swish
New Member
Posts: 8
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Post by swish on Jan 15, 2008 16:42:21 GMT -5
i really liked what i saw from Koubek against Moya, he was consistent throughout the match from the baseline, i have no doubt in my mind that he will have a great chance to beat Calleri if he plays like that plus Gordo is not really the most reliable player when it somes down to mental aspects e.g his huge choke against Koubek in Sopot last year, i expekt him to relapse at some point at Stefan taking advantage of that, see him as fav in my book especially of a best of 5 match
Koubek for me fellas
gl
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 15, 2008 17:11:03 GMT -5
Grr my internet has been awful the past few days Garcia Lopez @ 1.72 Stan James. He ended last year well winning a challenger in Tunis, started this year reaching quarters of Chennai (loss to Nadal) and got a cracking win over Chela in the first round. He's a confidence player and when he gets on a roll he's very impressive. He's gone out in the second round here the past few years but had some pretty tough draws and I think he'll go one better this year. Falla had a really tough battle with Anderson in the first round that looks like a poor performance, but more importantly he's not the fittest guy on tour (I nearly said he's as fat as Nalbandian) and I think he could struggle to recover. He's a lefty but I don't like his service action and it often gets him into problems. Garcia can be very aggressive on second serves and I like this match up for him. Sela @ 3.75 Coral. Definately worth a pop at this price. Karlovic has started the year pretty unconvincingly, losing to C Rochus in Doha and losing his service twice against Jamie Baker which was pretty unexpected. He's also got a poor record over 5 sets and is 2-4 in the main draw here. There are concerns over his stamina and the heat certainly won't help. There's quite a bit of hype around Sela, I'm not sure he's 'all that', but he's decent, and has good memories of taking Safin to 5 sets last year and he's improved quite a bit since then. Definately has a chance if he can stay mentally strong and not be bothered about Karlovics aces. Schuettler @ 2.36 Betfair. Just can't make a case for Simon being fav. I think Schuettler has started the year pretty well (after ending last year well), and got a nice win against Clement in the first round. Simon had a big battle with reynolds in the first round which is quite poor and he's 7-10 in 5 set matches (best run 3rd round Aussie 06) so I don't really fancy him coming off a 5 set match. Andreev @ 1.64 Betfair. Just like him in this match up really. He started the year awfully in Doha but seems to be improving match-by-match. Served very well in the first round and if he continues that he'll be very tough to beat. Vliegen took care of Patience easily but he's been struggling for wins for a while (apart from a Challenger at home in Belgium he hasn't won consecutive matches since the French last year!) and I still think he'll be short on confidence. Pennetta @ 2.38 Pinnacle. Me like Flavia. Pennetta is back on the up after a really rough 12 months and has started this year well. Had a bit of a struggle in the first round but in the womens game I don't think that's so important so just looking at the match up here. H2H is 2-0 to Razzano with the last one in Toyko semis last year when Pennetta was finding form again. She had chances to win that match and Razzano was on an awesome double tournament win in China and Toyko, beating Venus in the Toyko final (Pennetta actually beat Venus the week after in Bangkok). Razzano not on that sort of run at the moment and I think Pennetta has the better game and is finding good form. Nice price. Rezai @ 3.75 Blue Sq. Big dog with a pretty decent chance here. Rezai in good form, finished last year strongly and started this year with some strong wins in reaching the Auckland final (loss to Davenport). Beat Katty Bondarenko in the first round which is a good win and should have lot's of confidence. Golovin ended last year very well but not sure how she's playing at the moment - had a few wins but a loss to Jankovic where a lot of people were on her. Weird one in the first round dropping a set to Cohen-Aloro but that's OK, main thing she got through. I just think this one can be close, and having a go on the improving Rezai. Good luck everyone!
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Post by sLOw on Jan 15, 2008 17:13:00 GMT -5
This has been my worst ever start so far, mostly due to stupid staking.
I have to get back on track and I don't see it as chasing.
Robredo V Fish
Tommy played crap against Zverev for the first 3 sets but then he started to pick up and was back to his usual self while Fish lost a set to the hardcourt legend Boris Pashanski, ridiculous. Robredo doesn't like to play the big hitters but once he gets a good target he will deliver some great shots which will keep his opponent guessing. Fish is serving pretty well but is as inconsistent off the ground as I have seen him. I expect Tommy to win this match in 3/4 tight sets, the last one will be a blowout.
BOL
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Post by smash on Jan 15, 2008 17:32:18 GMT -5
i really liked what i saw from Koubek against Moya, he was consistent throughout the match from the baseline, i have no doubt in my mind that he will have a great chance to beat Calleri if he plays like that plus Gordo is not really the most reliable player when it somes down to mental aspects e.g his huge choke against Koubek in Sopot last year, i expekt him to relapse at some point at Stefan taking advantage of that, see him as fav in my book especially of a best of 5 match Koubek for me fellas gl Like the thinking mate...I'm struggling to call this one! Good luck! BOL also to Lo and Mr. I!
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Post by smash on Jan 15, 2008 17:39:55 GMT -5
Not playing anything tonight. On first sight, I didn't like the look of the card...and I haven't had enough time to really look into anything in any great detail.
However, Korolev's price (4.40) caught my eye, and I was tempted by Roddick vs Berrer over 105.5 minutes (@ 1.77). My reasoning, for the latter, is that both are big servers and each not the best on the return...fairly reasonable to believe that there won't be so many breaks, and we could see approx. 10 games per set. Also, Berrer's leftie forehand preys, naturally, onto Roddick's weaker backhand wing...so he might be able to prolong the match time a little by winning some of these cross court exchanges. Overall, I'd predict approx. 3 minutes per game, and approx. 10 games per set. Factor in 1.5 minute changeovers every 2 games...and we're over 105.5 minutes! ;D However, the major aspect putting me off this bet is how quickly Roddick can rattle through his service games...he is very quick to get ready for the next point.
Anyway, Thursday's card looks a little better (although not great either), and I'll have more time to look into those matches, so it makes sense to wait.
Good luck to everyone playing tonight.
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