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Post by mrintensity on Jan 16, 2008 18:02:10 GMT -5
Took these earlier...
Ferrero v Jones UNDER 32.5 games @ 1.83 Bet365. Ferrero was exceptional in his first match against Kiefer and looks to have started the year very sharp after his final appearance in Auckland. His movement looked great and he was getting a lot of penetration on the groudies. Jones got a nice win against Montanes but this is several levels up. I see Ferrero taking this very easily, could be a battering and the under looks decent.
Verdasco v Tipsarevic OVER 35.5 games @ 1.8 Bet365. This is a reasonable number for a match that could go long, the fact it could even go over in 3 sets is a big bonus. Tipsarevic is a bit of an enigma to me, he's a lot better player than his ranking which tends to be around 50-80 for the past year. He gets a lot of little injuries and retirements from matches which is strange but his game is very very good. He tends to have a lot of long matches and has beeen involved in 6 five setters in the past year (and a couple of days). I see getting at least a set off Verdasco, and could win the match. Verdasco is a another player I struggle to get a read on, but he looks to be improving, and his slam record is improving in the past 12 months. I just see this match going at least to 4 sets, and should easily go over this number.
CILIC @ 1.66 Blue Sq. Easy for me to support Cilic neat after he did a nice job in the 1st round. He still looks in good form and seems to be more solid off the ground than the times I saw him last year. He's got the better serve and is the better all round player. Melzer had a shocking year last year after a run to the final in Vegas in February, and he had a staight sets win in the first round but not convinced he's found anything. He hasn't been past the 2nd round of a slam since Wimbledon 05 (lost to Coria in R3) and I can't see that changing.
GREMELMAYR @ 3.25 Bet365. This looks a juicy price, espeically if Spadea has a gig to get to. Spadea was very lucky in the first round here as he was getting battered by Stepanek before he got injured. Grem came through qualies and got a reasonable 4 set win against Roitman in the first round and has a decent chance.
HAASE @ 2.3 expekt. Grosjean has got a few wins this year but I still think he's on the slide. Beat Volandri in straight sets in the first round but that included a couple of breakers and a match like that should have been much easier. Haase is on the verge of making a massive breakthrough and has started this year well with stand out wins against Baghdatis and Ljubicic in the first round. He came through qualifying as well and has the groudies to match Grosjean and the Frenchman will make a lot of errors. 50/50 match for me.
SAFIN @ 2.48 Betfair. Already a lot of money in this market with £4518 available at this price for Safin. It's great to see him back playing well, and the main thing is that he looks in magnificant physical condition and so far seems to have his head right. On form he's a big fav against Baghdatis and this match is tough to price up, but I think it's wrong. Baggy came through against ToJo in the first round dropping a set but he's really going to have to step it up here. Both these guys have a great record at the Aussie (Baggy 14-3, Safin 27-6). Forget work tomorrow morning, this is going to be great!
MORIGAMI @ 3.31 Pinnacle. Here we go again! Morigami got the job done easily in the first round against Krajicek and has another good opportunity here. The lovely Kirilenko took 3 sets to beat Tu and had an injury time out in the 3rd for a problem with her right thigh. Not sure how bad that is, but surely it helps Morigamis cause. Morigami has the game to frustrate Kirilenko, and Maria is capable of making a lot of errors, so I think this one definately has a chance.
RUANO PASCUAL @ 1.59 Pinnacle. Inflated price here because Castano beat Safarova in the first round - Safarova was clearly injured (injured buttock if you're interested) so don't read anything into that. Before that Castano was on a run of 7 consecutive defeats including a 6-0 6-0 loss to Cirstea last week in qualifying. Ruano Pascual is a solid performer who is a class above Castano and the veteren should come through comfortably.
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Post by smash on Jan 16, 2008 18:40:02 GMT -5
i really liked what i saw from Koubek against Moya, he was consistent throughout the match from the baseline, i have no doubt in my mind that he will have a great chance to beat Calleri if he plays like that plus Gordo is not really the most reliable player when it somes down to mental aspects e.g his huge choke against Koubek in Sopot last year, i expekt him to relapse at some point at Stefan taking advantage of that, see him as fav in my book especially of a best of 5 match Koubek for me fellas gl Nicely done mate! ;D Having had a brief look at his R3 encounter with Mathieu, I must say I'm a little tempted by his price. Must be playing quite well too.
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Post by smash on Jan 16, 2008 18:43:15 GMT -5
I was tempted by Roddick vs Berrer over 105.5 minutes (@ 1.77) Gah, it would have won! However, I'm not too disappointed as I had, to be honest, judged the match wrong...score-wise, Berrer got trounced. Saw the last 20 minutes or so, and some of the guy's errors were incredible (in particular, THAT smash 1 foot from the net, which he allowed to bounce as well! ;D)...it was only a couple of long deuce games and a surprise break lead in the 3rd set that allowed the match to go on over the 105.5 minutes.
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Post by smash on Jan 16, 2008 18:51:42 GMT -5
Split 1 unit on two guys, for today:
Delic over Monaco @ 3.75 (0,31 units) - got to say that Monaco's world class baseline game isn't the best match-up for Amer, who lacks consistency in his groundstrokes, and isn't exactly nimble on his feet...but I'm giving this a go, regardless. Two things stand out for me: (1) Monaco's disliking for big-servers (e.g. 2007 defeats to Gonzalez, Haas and Querrey), and the more aggressive, net-rushing types (e.g. Mahut, Arthurs, Mirnyi; 2008 near-miss vs Llodra)...a group to which Delic belongs; (2) Delic has started the year with 4 straight sets wins...given that for large chunks of last year he couldn't win a match to save his life, this must be good for his confidence, and a reward for some hard work over the off-season.
Haase over Grosjean @ 2.50 (0,69 units) - Grosjean's "grinding" style isn't the nicest match-up for Haase, who is fairly error-prone, but the Frenchman hasn't had a lot of success in more recent matches against the powerful, "loose cannon" type players (e.g. 2007-08 defeats to Tursunov, Safin, Acasuso and Garcia-Lopez). Haase possesses a huge serve which could be a fine asset in this match, if he can get some consistency going, while the Dutchman has the ability to hit huge winners off virtually any ball, from the baseline. Inconsistency is his major weakness, but Grosjean's game isn't as solid as it once was (e.g. 1st serve now often languishes sub-55%), and the players' respective form coming into this round makes the Dutchman a fairly logical bet.
Good luck Mr. I, and to everyone else playing!
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Post by smash on Jan 17, 2008 5:05:04 GMT -5
Delic over Monaco @ 3.75 (0,31 units) Lost. Bizarre match...Delic went 2 sets and 2-5 down in the 3rd, and fought all the way back to lead 2-0 in the 5th. Haase over Grosjean @ 2.50 (0,69 units) Lost.Another 5 set defeat. YTD: 7-21 (-8,38 units [-30.4% ROI]).Not having a lot of luck at the moment...a 1-4 record in 5th sets at the Aus Open (the week could be so different). Was all set to back Tipsarevic, except his reported blister problems put me off. Anyway, still plenty of tennis left this week.
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Post by jimnik on Jan 17, 2008 9:56:15 GMT -5
I'm eagerly awaiting the Ferrero-Nalbandian odds. Anything over 3.0 and I'll be happy to back JCF.
As for tonight, I've got a couple I want to go for:
Karlovic over Youzhny @ 3.10, 1 unit He's made it to the 3rd round with a 0-2 TB record. His confidence must be high and as long as he keeps holding serve his TB luck should eventually return.
Andreev over Gasquet @ 4.4, 1 unit The h2h is reason enough to consider this a bargain. These odds imply another routine win for a solid top 10 player which is not quite where I'd put Gasquet right now. Truth is, he's such a volatile player it's impossible to guarantee how he'll perform. He played well against Lopez but this is a completely different proposition. Andreev will force him to play more than just two or three good shots to win a point.
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Post by sztywny on Jan 17, 2008 12:50:58 GMT -5
I heard that Karlovic has healthy problems here.He serves smaller aces and he has % of service arround 70%.It is very poor for him.Youzhny is very solid player and I think he can beat easy Croatian. I take Youzhny -1.5 sets 1.60 Betsson 6/10My next choice is Razzano to beat Jankovic.Jelena has here health problems and she won last two games because her rivals helped her.Gallovits made arround 28 unforced errors.Malek was very nervous and in key moments of a match she made simply errors.Razzano is solid player with good end of last season and I think this odds are to take but in one ball bookie. My pick:Razzano 3.15 Betgun 5/10 My next bet is Hsieh(3.27) to beat Rezai.Both players are in form but Rezai didn't play against any player in form.Golovin played sth arround 60% her real possibilities.Hsieh played well on Hopman Cup and here won against solid Bammer.I see big value in this odds and I take it for 5/10 stake. I think the best bet for today is Tsonga straight win against GGL.Mariusz Frystenberg rival of Spanier in doubles told that in 2 last sets Lopez was very tired and he ,,gave'' them a lot of points.He had some healthy problems too.It isn't serious but in game against being in form Tsonga it can be important. My pick:Garcia-Lopez, Guillermo - Tsonga, J-W under 37.5 games Unibet 1.85 10/10 That is all.I thinked about Kohlschreiber and Andreev too. P.S Nice site Sorry for My English.I learn it else
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Post by betcollector on Jan 17, 2008 13:49:13 GMT -5
Was posting in the WTA thread but seems to make more sense here...
Agree about Hsieh - seems a value play although i like Rezai as a player the prices seem too keen after her win against Golovin
Took 1 bet Peer to beat Dementieva @2.25 pinny prices gone down a bit last time i looked.
Israeli seems confident in interviews and although form doesn't appear 100% Dementieva seems here for the taking.
The Russian hasn't beaten anyone of note on hard for a long time (excluding exhibitions) and the loss to Arvidsson in Sydney doesn't read well.
Both players know each other well (training partners) and hard to see this as anything other than a 50-50 match. So value on Peer for me.
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 17, 2008 13:59:51 GMT -5
I keep getting suckered in by these caps and total games, it's going to end in YOUZHNY -2.5 games @ 1.83 Will Hill. This being 2.5 games instead of 3.5 is important as Youzhny can get through in 3 breakers. Anyway, still not convinced in Karlovic, Sela had a great shot against him in the last round but really well apart. Youzhny has been playing really well this year, and I see him getting through this alright. Also I think that Youznhy WILL break the Karlovic serve, and that should be enough to cover this cap easily even if he drops a set, as I can't see Karlovic breaking. Nadal v Simon Up to and including 31 games @ 1.83 Paddy. This is a nice number, as over books doing over/under are going for 28.5 and 29.5. This one including a 6-4 6-4 6-4 and even a 7-6 6-4 6-2 which is nice. Nadal has faced two guys so far, one who had a good serve which made it tight for a while, and one who didn't, where he gave up 4 games. Simon fits into the second category. He came through easily against Schuettler but by the looks of the scoreline the German didn't show up. I think Nadal will crush him here, and should go under this number. KOUBEK @ 2.62 totesport. Koubek has played excellently so far, beating two tough opponents for the loss of just one set. He's definately worth a go here. H2H is 2-1 with all a while ago, but it does show Mathieus dislike for lefties, going 15-27 against them. He's had a bit of a soft draw so far, beating Hanescu and Capdeville, and I'm not sure he's in the form of last year. Have to side with the form player here at a decent price. ANDREEV +7.5 @ 1.8 Boylesports. It's nice to get the 7.5 games here, with most places going 5.5 or 6.5. Andreev is improving it looks like this year after starting slowly, and he's caused Gasquet a lot of problems in the past, actually leading H2H 3-2. I understand why he has success, as his massive topspin hurts Gasquets beautiful backhand. Gasquet was great against Lopez, but the Spaniard made a lot of errors, and I'm sure this one will be tighter. These two met last week with Gasquet coming through 6-3 7-6 and Andreev had chances. Expect Gasquet to come through, decent chance of 4 sets and Andreev should cover this number. FISH @ 2.00 Coral. The money is coming in for Fish and expect him to start as the fav everywhere. He was awesome in the last round against Robredo and he's the type of player when his serve works he can go on a great run. Good record here including reaching the quarters last year beating Ljubicic and Ferrer on the way. Nieminen started the year playing very well but has struggled a lot so far, going 5 with Dancevic and a break down twice against Levine. He can't afford to do that here as Fish will be much tougher to break. JANKOVIC -3.5 @ 1.83 WillHill. Nice number as it allows any single break in each set win and a 7-6 6-3. Everyone is talking about Jankovic being injured, but we can't be certain, important thing is she is still getting the W and actually I thought she looked better physically in the second round than first. The one thing I am certain of is how this price has moved because of Jankovics injury - normally she would be 1.15 and the cap would be 5.5 - I think that move is too much. Also with this type of bet, a retirement and it's void. I like my chances. Sharapova v Vesnina Up to and including 18 games @ 1.72 Paddy. Very nice that this includes 18 games, but I think this one will be over before that. Sharapova was in spectacular form in the last round against Davenport, and although I doubt she'll reach that level again, expect this one just as easy on the scoreboard. She's the type that doesn't let up when ahead, which is crucial when trying to cover this number. Vesnina is nothing special, and doesn't have a big serve to keep this close, don't expect it to last long.
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Post by smash on Jan 17, 2008 16:57:44 GMT -5
Welcome, and good luck, betcollector and sztywny. BOL also jimnik and Mr. I ;D Haven't bet anything tonight. I was most drawn to Fish and Koubek. Didn't take the former as the match-up isn't, on the face of it, all that nice for him...the only decent thing going for Mardy at the moment is how well he is playing. But, sadly, that doesn't mean he will follow up an impressive R2 performance. Can't find value in anything below 2.10. As for Koubek...I find it hard to trust him. He wins when I don't bet him; loses when I do. I can see him causing PHM problems, but I'm not totally convinced he will, ultimately, get over the winning line. Probably a good match to trade though. Already taken one for Saturday (I think this will be a popular bet), and I'm prepared to put down a near-maximum bet on a double as well. Will post all this tomorrow. BOL tonight everyone.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 17, 2008 17:57:21 GMT -5
Ah well, I've decided to do a bit of paper betting YTD: 0-0 (+/- 0,00 units)Mathieu V KOUBEK @2.64 (1,50 units)Having seen Koubek's first round match against Moya which impressed me. Koubek is playing great tennis but the most important thing is that he is believing in himself. He has the shots to hurt Mathieu; the backhand crosscourt deep into Mathieu's forehand corner. Gasquet V Andreev ANDREEV TO WIN A SET @1.62 (1,00 unit)Andreev is what I'd call a bad matchup for Gasquet on a CLAYCOURT. I'm pretty much sure that Andreev is going to lose. I have followed the Gstaad quarterfinal 2007 those two played and I have to say that it was a very tight match which could've gone either way. Anyway this is played on a hardcourt so I'd play it a bit smaller. Fish V NIEMINEN @2.04 (1,00 unit)My worst ever expirience in betting happened in Fish's last match, some people may say but I really "deserved" that for backing Robredo Nieminen is a decent counterpuncher and has made serve and volley players suffer. Tough his forehand has to matchup with Fish's strenght, the backhand. It'll be a pretty tight match with the winner coming through in 4 or 5 sets and after seeing Fish's belly when he played Robredo (YEAH, IT'S HUGER THAN NALBY'S!) he won't have the physical strenght to cope with one of the fitter guys. Roddick V Kohlschreiber KOHLSCHREIBER TO WIN A SET @1.76 (1,50 units)I have fallen in love with Kohlie's game, once he gets in the zone he can be hardly beaten. I really fancy Kohlie to win this match in 4 sets but Roddick's serve is pretty much firing lights out at the moment! And again taking the "safer" option by laying Roddick 3-0 Now watch all those win! Please do me one favour and check the numbers you type in your betslip if you haven't done previously! It can cost pretty much when you don't pay attention! BOL
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Post by jimnik on Jan 18, 2008 0:11:42 GMT -5
I heard that Karlovic has healthy problems here.He serves smaller aces and he has % of service arround 70%.It is very poor for him.Youzhny is very solid player and I think he can beat easy Croatian. Hi there. Yeah you definitely got that one spot on. He won 62% of points off his 1st serve, which is shocking by his standards, and he only got 63% 1st serves in so no surprise that he was broken 5 times in just 3 sets.
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Post by sztywny on Jan 18, 2008 1:16:44 GMT -5
I heard that Karlovic has healthy problems here.He serves smaller aces and he has % of service arround 70%.It is very poor for him.Youzhny is very solid player and I think he can beat easy Croatian. I take Youzhny -1.5 sets 1.60 Betsson 6/10My next choice is Razzano to beat Jankovic.Jelena has here health problems and she won last two games because her rivals helped her.Gallovits made arround 28 unforced errors.Malek was very nervous and in key moments of a match she made simply errors.Razzano is solid player with good end of last season and I think this odds are to take but in one ball bookie. My pick:Razzano 3.15 Betgun 5/10 My next bet is Hsieh(3.27) to beat Rezai.Both players are in form but Rezai didn't play against any player in form.Golovin played sth arround 60% her real possibilities.Hsieh played well on Hopman Cup and here won against solid Bammer.I see big value in this odds and I take it for 5/10 stake. I think the best bet for today is Tsonga straight win against GGL.Mariusz Frystenberg rival of Spanier in doubles told that in 2 last sets Lopez was very tired and he ,,gave'' them a lot of points.He had some healthy problems too.It isn't serious but in game against being in form Tsonga it can be important. My pick:Garcia-Lopez, Guillermo - Tsonga, J-W under 37.5 games Unibet 1.85 10/10 That is all.I thinked about Kohlschreiber and Andreev too. P.S Nice site Sorry for My English.I learn it else Youzhny Garcia-Lopez, Guillermo - Tsonga, J-W under 37.5 games Hsieh Razzano 3/4
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Post by jimnik on Jan 18, 2008 5:01:43 GMT -5
Karlovic over Youzhny @ 3.10, 1 unit. Andreev over Gasquet @ 4.4, 1 unit. lost lost Got both completely wrong. Gasqet was very solid today and even more patient from the back than Andreev. I should have known about Karlovic's problem before placing that silly bet. Gambling sucks. I think I've lost enough money for one month. Ferrero's odds are tempting me but that is exactly why Nalbandian will probably demolish him in straight sets.
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Post by smash on Jan 18, 2008 12:15:30 GMT -5
Nice going sztywny and Lo I feel your pain jimnik mate...not been able to make a breakthrough at this year's AO, either. Once again, I'm glad I stayed away...would have lost on Fish, and, as I suspected, Koubek couldn't get over the winning line, despite having his chances.
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