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Post by sLOw on Jan 8, 2008 18:56:13 GMT -5
Malisse gets through 7-6 6-3
I was quite worried when he got broken at *5-4 serving for the set, but yet again one of my favourite players strike.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 9, 2008 16:30:17 GMT -5
AUCKLAND - Thursday
One match I have in mind is the german encounter. I was very surprised at the odds, in my book I'd have Kohlie way shorter, but we all know how much a good win can change the odds in favour of the lower ranked player. Their one and only meeting was won by Mayer back in 2003 on the Challenger Tour (Indoor court), this one went to 3 sets. For my liking Mayer has a weird style, his backswing on the forehand is way to big and his service motion isn't as effective as it has to be. I think that the pace generated by Kohlie will destroy Mayer's forehand, he will be hitting those forehands.
Kohlschreiber to beat Mayer @1.6ish
I'm a bit afraid to bet odds on at this stage of the year, but this price is just way too big.
BOL
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Post by sLOw on Jan 9, 2008 16:59:22 GMT -5
I have just seen that there is some pretty heavy wind in Auckland. I will have to watch how the two deal with that, so wait for an inplay bet on Kohlie. Hopefully I manage to get over 2.00 on Kohlie!
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Post by smash on Jan 9, 2008 17:12:22 GMT -5
T Johansson to WIN Auckland @ 13.00 [VC] (0,50 units) ...but it doesn't matter, as the gamble paid off...Monaco is in the QF! ;D Lee over Llodra @ 1.93 (0,90 units) Koubek over Moya @ 2.25 (0,75 units) Yep, his stay in Sydney was a short one, but sadly he decided to leave the very next day.  Minar over Korolev @ 2.08 (0,75 units) Verdasco -2.5 games over Grosjean @ 1.80 (1,50 units) Quite surprised Seb managed that one. YTD: 3-10 (-5,78 units [-41.7% ROI]) |
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Post by smash on Jan 9, 2008 17:30:42 GMT -5
Ferrer to WIN Auckland @ 2.75 [VC] (1,00 unit) Into QF with the minimum of fuss. A potentially tough match with Benneteau, but I'm not going to hedge any of the potential profit...he should come through. Monaco to WIN Auckland @ 15.00 [Gamebookers] (0,50 units) Had some pretty good luck with Almagro, Malisse, Nieminen and Chela all exiting in the last day or so, resulting in his outright odds dropping (VC now offering 7.50, for instance). However, liquidity in Betfair (in the outright market) is preventing me from hedging a small part of the potential profit. Running a little scared of Llodra at the moment, and I'm not reading too much into his alleged shoulder problem...he probably withdrew from doubles as a precaution. If he is relatively fit, I see him being a big threat in this one, so I have made the following hedge: Llodra over Monaco @ 2.50 (2,00 units)Would be cool if Kohly advances to SF to meet Monaco...the losing h2h, for the German, should help to drive his price up a little bit (hopefully 2.30-2.50), while Mayer's 3-1 record over Monaco may have punters worried. |
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Post by smash on Jan 9, 2008 17:49:05 GMT -5
As for today's card...in Auckland, I was tempted by Massu, but, on checking a few stats, it would seem that JCF is playing relatively well, so I'll skip it. To beat JCF, I feel that you either have to hit right through him, or out-last him over long rallies. I don't see Massu doing either, to be honest, which may explain why he has struggled so much against him, previously. Not tempted by Mayer/Kohly...Mayer, perhaps, deserves a little more respect with the odds, but the guy is a fruitcake.
In Sydney, Tursunov should hit through Grosjean, but I don't think the latter will be a pushover, so the odds aren't value imo; don't care much for Santoro/Korolev; Guccione/Berdych is likely to be tight, but I'd side with Berdych to win the points that truly matter (e.g. 60%+ success in 2007 ATP tiebreaks; "hit and miss" players have found it hard to penetrate Stepanek's game (e.g. 2007 wins over Blake, Tursunov, Gabashvili and Gonzalez), so I'm not tempted enough by Calleri's odds.
GL to anyone playing.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 10, 2008 12:07:38 GMT -5
Bad luck with Ferrer outright!
I am only interested in Kohlschreiber V Monaco
The german is playing very well on hardcourts while Monaco has to prove that he can play on that surface on a consistent basis. He has beaten Llodra yesterday but has spend over 2 hours on court winning in the third set tiebreak. The H2H favours the argentine but Kohlschreiber has the better game to provide good results on hardcourts. Have taken odds of 2.2 average.
BOL
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Post by smash on Jan 10, 2008 13:25:13 GMT -5
Bad luck with Ferrer outright! Sums up my week, really! The worst week I have EVER had in this business...so far 0/8. At any rate, I will learn from three crucial errors: (1) despite liking a certain bet, I won't take it if I don't get the odds I want...this saved me last week (as it should also do long-term), but I didn't follow it this week; (2) Didn't like handicaps before, so why try them again, re: Verdasco? (3) Not a huge fan of outrights, either, except in the larger events...so 2,00+ units wasted on that. In all, I've bet like a mug this week (except the staking was fine, unlike last year), and I deserve to have suffered. My task will now be to sharpen up in similar fashion to last year, when I recovered from -13,00 units after the first 2 weeks. |
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Post by smash on Jan 10, 2008 13:37:44 GMT -5
Ferrer to WIN Auckland @ 2.75 [VC] (1,00 unit) Hedge on Llodra lost (will be factored into Monaco outright bet), which was unfortunate given that Monaco's fightback leaves him tired for the last couple of days in the tournament...and he also has 2 doubles matches to play today (if he has any sense he'll withdraw from doubles). Anyway, I see Kohlschreiber as a threat, so I've hedged a further 1,28 units on him, on a lay of Monaco (1.79). At full fitness, I think Juan will be too solid for him, but given how much tennis he has had to play in the last couple of days, and how Kohly has been able to rest between matches, I think the German has a shot. I still expect Monaco win, so I'm prepared to take a near 1,50 unit overall loss on the outright, should he fail to come through. I've totally messed up all aspects of betting this week (inclcuding this outright), so I'm almost beyond caring now, to be honest. Let's just get the last couple of days over with. As concerns other matches...Santoro's game hasn't been the nicest of matches for the powerful, less-disciplined players (e.g. last wins over Blake and Gulbis; 7-2 with Safin), but I think Dima will find a way through; Stepanek seems to like the match-up that the left-handed big-serving serve-volleying Gooch presents (e.g. 3-0 Arthurs, 2-0 Ivanisevic), but their respective tiebreak records put me off going for his 1.60-ish odds (37-26 Gucc; 11-16 Step); I don't see Benneteau without chances against Ferrero, and he should feel happy with the Spaniard's tiresome schedule over the last couple of days (3 matches; 5 hours), but I'm not convinced he will be able to cross the winning line, and the windy conditions aren't ideal for him...would want near 2.70 odds. |
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 10, 2008 16:55:17 GMT -5
Not really feeling it this week. But a couple of small plays tonight.
Monaco @ 1.79. I think Monaco has been excellent this week. Had a couple of solid wins against baseliners then a long match against the in-form Llodra. Slight concern over tiredness especially with the Aussie starting in a few days but I'm willing to let it slide here. He improved massively last year and looks to be playing very well. Kohl has had a bit of an easier draw and has come through OK, only dropping a set on a tiebreak to Cilic. He has a very good game but against a rock like Monaco I think he'll make too many errors. H2H is 2-0 to Monaco but not important here.
Benneteau @ 2.5 Stan James. Excellent win for Benneteau yesterday against red-hot favourite Ferrer. I didn't see it but apparently he served extremely well and when he serves well he's very tough to beat. Ferrero had a long, unimpressive match with Massu and he could struggle here. H2H is an interesting 1-1 with both matches going 3 sets so expect this one to be tight.
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Post by jimnik on Jan 10, 2008 17:46:30 GMT -5
Ferrer to win Auckland @ 2.96, 1 unit. Lost What a tough week this is turning out to be. I would have happily backed Ferrer at shorter odds than this, I just couldn't see him putting in that half-hearted effort. Other than my two lost bets there were also a couple other match-ups which I clearly got wrong this week. It goes to show there are so many factors that need to be taken into account, other than match-ups, when it comes to small events like this especially leading into a grand slam. |
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Post by jimnik on Jan 10, 2008 17:55:40 GMT -5
Backing Benneteau over Ferrero @ 2.50, 1 unit
Going with the randomness of the week and the fact that JCF hasn't won a title in over 4 years. I saw their match in Vienna last year and it was basically just one or two key points that separated them. When Benneteau gets a lead in a match it's tough to get back on level terms because he has a very reliable serve, especially down the T, and the returner needs to be high on confidence to deal with it effectively. When he's behind or level his play becomes much more predictable and easier to break down.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 10, 2008 19:24:59 GMT -5
like the Benneteau play j, BOL!
That was an amazing performance by Kohlie, incredible winners! That was just stunning, tough Monaco was playing like ehhhrmmm... yeah...! What a great display, hope Kohlie takes the title! He's a guy to watch, gotta love the heart he shows!
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Post by jimnik on Jan 10, 2008 22:04:08 GMT -5
^ Oh well, I liked it too until about two hours ago. Backing Benneteau over Ferrero @ 2.50, 1 unit. Lost In fairness though it was closer than the score suggested. Benneteau had more BPs but just failed to find his best form when it mattered. There were also a few lucky netcords that went JCF's way. Sums up the week really. All the underdogs winning EXCEPT the ones that I back. |
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Post by sLOw on Jan 11, 2008 13:31:16 GMT -5
It's the FINAL day again!
I won't call the Sydney final.
Auckland - Kohlschreiber V Ferrero
This is another matchup Kohlschreiber should dominate, he has been firing winners all week long, great determination and court speed. This has been impressive so far! Ferrero played really well too, he just tends to struggle against big hitters. He has got very consistent and punishing groundstrokes but he hasn't got one huge shot (his forehand hasn't been that effective since he won RG back in 03). I'm looking for a nice trade here, hopefully will get some low odds on Kohlie to lay off!
Kohlie @2.16
BOL
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