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Post by mrintensity on Jan 7, 2008 16:44:16 GMT -5
Tursunov @ 2.18. Wawrinka another off a tough week last week and a long flight and time difference from Qatar. Tursunov was playing OK and I like his explosive style in this match up.
Pennetta @ 1.36 Will Hill. As much as I like Dokic, has to be opposed now. She's had a lot of matches in the past few days and simply doesn't have the fitness levels to keep recovering. Pennetta got back to her old level at the back end of last year and got a great win against Radwanska in the first round.
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 7, 2008 16:56:47 GMT -5
Layed Massu @ 1.2 as well, see if this home boy Jones is any good. Look to possibly get out during the first set, see what happens.
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Post by jimnik on Jan 7, 2008 17:02:08 GMT -5
OK, my first bet of the year.
Ferrer to win Auckland @ 2.96, 1 unit (Betfair) What a bargain. I was trully expecting odds of around 1.8-2.2 because there's no-one to challenge him here. He's the only representative of the top 20 in a draw full of clay players, none of whom have any weapons to get him out of his comfort zone.
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Post by jimnik on Jan 7, 2008 17:10:20 GMT -5
I was going to back Ancic before I heard of his withdrawal. It will be interesting to see the LL who replaces him. Ferrero hasn't won his opening match of the season since 2003 so I wouldn't rule out a major upset here.
Interesting to see Lee's odds tumbling. Clearly Llodra is feeling some fatigue from last week and won't be helped by a Tuesday start.
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Post by smash on Jan 7, 2008 18:28:38 GMT -5
Two for today:
Lee over Llodra @ 1.93 (0,90 units) - a little bit wary of fading an in-form player, but the slower, higher-bouncing, more exposed (to wind, rain etc) courts should play less to his liking than in Adelaide (faster court, hotter), an event he has performed well in over a number of appearances. Lee's counter-punching style is, naturally, not the nicest of matches for serve-volleyers and, while the Korean does have a negative record against lefties (despite his one-handed backhand being considered his stronger wing), a number of those wins are relevant to today's match-up (e.g. Zverev, Carlsen, Arthurs, Guccione and Rusedski). Also, it isn't always easy following up a tournament win, only days later.
Koubek over Moya @ 2.25 (0,75 units) - as the head-to-head illustrates (3-3; Koubek 2-0 in 2007), Moya could be in for a quite a battle here, given that Koubek's controlled aggression (minus brain farts) is capable of gradually grinding him down over long rallies (in not too dissimilar fashion to Ferrero, Nalbandian and Ferrer - 2007 defeats for Moya), where his leftie forehand will also prey, naturally, on the weaker Moya backhand wing. Worse still, he has had little time to recover from an 11,000 km flight from India and a gruelling 3:54hr Saturday marathon with Nadal. Given that the 31-year old is prone to injury (and, years ago, developed a stress fracture in his back) and knows the importance of looking after his body, it wouldn't surprise me if his stay in Sydney is a short one.
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Post by jimnik on Jan 7, 2008 23:15:31 GMT -5
As the odds suggest, this rain delay could be just what Llodra needed. A lot of uncertainty in this market. But even if it comes to a Wednesday match I'd be willing to back Lee especially if his odds keep climbing like this. Llodra had a great week in Sydney, nothing more. I don't think this is a major turning point in his career and Lee has done well against serve-volleyers. He beat Bjorkman and Mirnyi last year and had MPs against Karlovic.
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Post by jimnik on Jan 8, 2008 10:43:37 GMT -5
Ferrero 1.23-5.2 Levine I have to say I'm disappointed by those odds. Considering the difference in ranking I was hoping to get Levine at around 7.0-8.0 but 5.2 isn't really worth it. I admit I've never seen the kid play but standing at 5;9 I don't expect him to have a powerful game to hurt Ferrero.
On the other hand, I do see some good form going for him. He won two challengers in November beating Kendrick, Isner and Young without even dropping a set. So there's no doubt he must be high on confidence and like all Americans he's probably at his best on hard courts.
But still I wouldn't expect even JCF to screw this up. I might be willing to lay Ferrero 2-0 because I have seen him struggle against young low ranked opponents before.
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Post by jimnik on Jan 8, 2008 10:47:47 GMT -5
Lee 1.94-2.06 Llodra The market is constantly changing its mind on this one. Looks like they've ultimately decided that Llodra used up most of his form/luck last week and might still be a bit hungover.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 8, 2008 12:07:52 GMT -5
Ferrero way too short, Levine is one of the best young american players just behind Don. I don't rate Querrey anywhere near those two, he's way too inconsistent and has a weird game.
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Post by nikolaysconscience on Jan 8, 2008 13:11:02 GMT -5
I'm being tempted into a lay here, Ferrero's terrible 1st match of the year record added to this.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 8, 2008 16:26:32 GMT -5
I do trust in Levine here, he's a solid player. My only doubt is which Ferrero shows up! So I stick with the real belgian number one, Malisse.
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 8, 2008 16:50:49 GMT -5
Playing Almagro and Simon. Still got Malisse from yesterday.
Lay Gasquet @ 1.54. I think Tursunov is playing pretty well at the start of the year and is definately worth a go. Gasquet I don't think is one to trust in smaller events and onlyone match this year which was pretty tight against Andreev. H2H is 1-0 to Tursunov
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Post by jimnik on Jan 8, 2008 16:58:44 GMT -5
In-play:
Laying Ferrero over Levine @ 1.07, 2 units (Betfair) Might as well give it a go. He just took the first set but Levine had chances. Let's see how this progresses.
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Post by smash on Jan 8, 2008 18:20:09 GMT -5
Obviously Koubek lost, but I'll update the record tomorrow, when I will have more time. My luck truly stinks right now...Llodra got an extra day to make the transition (perhaps should have "cancelled" the bet, on this basis), and all 3 of my Auckland outright players have to play twice today. Ferrer should win twice, regardless, but Monaco/Tojo could be a tight scrap, and one of those guys will have to play Rochus, who is dangerous enough as it is, a couple of hours later.
Anyway, here are two further bets for today:
Minar over Korolev @ 2.08 (0,75 units) - I don't see any real advantage for Korolev, today. Minar is fairly dangerous in that he possesses a big serve, powerful groundstrokes and doesn't like to hold back...obviously he is capable of making some horrible misses, but, when he is in-form, his game is tough to handle. He clearly likes playing here, having successfully qualified on all visits (15-2 overall record), and he wasted little time winning 4 matches (3 against tough opposition), this week. Korolev has struggled in the last few days, which could be put down to a slight knee tendonitis problem, affecting his serving.
Verdasco -2.5 games over Grosjean @ 1.80 (1,50 units) - got quite a strong lean on Fernando but I'd rather boost the 1.60 ML odds with this bet. Verdasco should be able to dominate a large number of the rallies against the Frenchman...he has the greater consistency and control in his shots, and, although Grosjean has a decent record against lefties, his backhand is considered to be his weaker wing, and Verdasco should, naturally, be able to prey on it, cross court, with his big forehand. Grosjean admitted to having problems with his shoulder over the off-season, meaning he was struggling to practice his serve...and I notice that he is still suffering the same old inconsistency in his delivery (sub-55% 1st serves). Verdasco was able to pounce on Grosjean's 2nd serve in their last encounter (ironically, at this venue, last year), and I would expect him to do the same, today, while a 70%+ 1st serve of his own would make it little harder for Grosjean to keep threatening breaks. The Frenchman's strong, flat serve to the ad-court should also be negated by Nando's forehand wing. Finally, the two are in fairly different form - Verdasco has been playing his best tennis for some time, while I consider that little has changed as far as Grosjean's form is concerned, even with the Lyon title at the end of last year.
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Post by jimnik on Jan 8, 2008 18:50:08 GMT -5
In-play: Laying Ferrero over Levine @ 1.07, 2 units (Betfair) Might as well give it a go. He just took the first set but Levine had chances. Let's see how this progresses. Lost, -0.14 units Unusually solid from JCF.
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