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Post by smash on Jan 4, 2008 18:32:39 GMT -5
ATP Player Entry Lists Menstennisforums.com do an excellent job of providing, and updating, on a regular basis, the individual tournament entry lists. Please refer to the first post of each thread for the main draw, alternate and qualifying entry lists: Auckland: www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=113686Sydney: www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=113687Tournament Draws Auckland qualifying: www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=114979Sydney qualifying: www.atptennis.com/1/posting/2008/338/qs.pdfAucklandRound 1(1) FERRER, David ESP def. HERNANDEZ, Oscar ESP 6/1 6/2 ROITMAN, Sergio ARG def. (Q) ROSOL, L. CZE 6/2 7/5 BENNETEAU, Julien FRA def. SELA, Dudi ISR 6/4 7/6(3) (6) ALMAGRO, Nicolas ESP def. ACASUSO, Jose ARG 6/3 6/4 (4) FERRERO, Juan Carlos ESP def. (LL) LEVINE, Jesse USA* 6/4 6/1 MELZER, Jurgen AUT def. ESCHAUER, Werner AUT 6/4 1/6 6/3 (Q)MASSU, Nicolas CHI def. (Q) JONES, G.D NZL 6/4 6/2 MALISSE, Xavier BEL v (5) NIEMINEN, Jarkko FIN 7/6(3) 6/3 (8) MONTANES, Albert ESP def. (W) STATHAM, Jose (rubin) NZL 6/4 6/4 (SE) LLODRA, Michael FRAdef. LEE, Hyung-Taik KOR 1/6 4/6 ROCHUS, Olivier BEL def. BERRER, Michael GER 6/7(8) 6/2 6/4 (3) MONACO, Juan ARG def. JOHANSSON, Thomas SWE 6/3 6/4 (7) KOHLSCHREIBER, Philipp GER def. RUSSELL, Michael USA 7/5 6/2 CILIC, Marin CRO def. (Q) CAKL, T. CZE 6/4 6/3 MAYER, Florian GER def. QUERREY, Sam USA 7/5 6/3 (2) CHELA, Juan Ignacio ARG def. (W) KING-TURNER, Daniel NZL 5/7 6/2 7/5 Round 2(1) FERRER, David ESP def. ROITMAN, Sergio ARG 6/1 7/6(2) BENNETEAU, Julien FRA def. (6) ALMAGRO, Nicolas ESP 6/4 2/6 6/2 (4) FERRERO, Juan Carlos ESP def. MELZER, Jurgen AUT 6/3 7/6(6) (Q)MASSU, Nicolas CHI def. MALISSE, Xavier BEL 6/4 6/4 (SE) LLODRA, Michael FRA def. (8) MONTANES, Albert ESP 6/3 6/4 (3) MONACO, Juan ARG def. ROCHUS, Olivier BEL 6/3 6/3 (7) KOHLSCHREIBER, Philipp GER def. CILIC, Marin CRO 6/3 6/7(5) 6/4 MAYER, Florian GER def. (2) CHELA, Juan Ignacio ARG 6/3 7/6(7) QFBENNETEAU, Julien FRA def. (1) FERRER, David ESP 6/4 6/0 (4) FERRERO, Juan Carlos ESP def. (Q)MASSU, Nicolas CHI 4/6 6/3 6/4 (3) MONACO, Juan ARG def. (SE) LLODRA, Michael FRA 4/6 7/6(5) 7/6(5) (7) KOHLSCHREIBER, Philipp GER def. MAYER, Florian GER 6/3 6/4 SF(4) FERRERO, Juan Carlos ESP def. BENNETEAU, Julien FRA 6/3 6/4 (7) KOHLSCHREIBER, Philipp GER def. (3) MONACO, Juan ARG 6/2 6/1 Sydney.Round 1(1) GASQUET, Richard FRA def. ANDREEV, Igor RUS 6/3 7/6(6) TURSUNOV, Dmitry RUS def. WAWRINKA, Stanislas SUI 6/3 6/3 GROSJEAN, Sebastien FRA def. (W)LUCZAK, Peter AUS 6/4 4/6 6/0 (8) VERDASCO, Fernando ESP def. LOPEZ, Feliciano ESP 6/3 4/6 6/2 SANTORO, Fabrice FRA def. (3) BLAKE, James USA 7/6(4) 6/2 (Q) DARCIS, Steve BEL def. (SE) SIRIANNI, Joseph AUS 6/1 7/6(4) (Q) MINAR, Ivo CZE def. (Q) JONES, Alun AUS 6/2 7/5 (LL) KOROLEV, E. RUS** def. (7) MATHIEU, Paul-Henri FRA 6/1 ret. (6) HEWITT, Lleyton AUS def. MAHUT, Nicolas FRA 6/3 6/4 (W) GUCCIONE, Chris AUS def (Q) MARTIN, Alberto ESP 7/6(6) 6/4 SIMON, Gilles FRA def. FISH, Mardy USA 7/6(6) 6/1 (4) BERDYCH, Tomas CZE def. VOLANDRI, Filippo ITA 6/1 6/3 (5) MOYA, Carlos ESP def. KOUBEK, Stefan AUT 1/6 6/4 6/2 CALLERI, Agustin ARG def. (W) JONES, Greg AUS 6/3 6/2 SEPPI, Andreas ITA def. TSONGA, Jo-Wilfried FRA 3/6 6/3 6/2 STEPANEK, Radek CZE def. (2) ROBREDO, Tommy ESP 6/4 6/2 Round 2TURSUNOV, Dmitry RUS def. (1) GASQUET, Richard FRA 3/6 6/3 6/4 GROSJEAN, Sebastien FRA def. (8) VERDASCO, Fernando ESP 6/3 6/4 SANTORO, Fabrice FRA def. (Q) DARCIS, Steve BEL 6/1 6/3 (LL) KOROLEV, E. RUS** def. (Q) MINAR, Ivo CZE 6/2 6/3 (W) GUCCIONE, Chris AUS def. (6) HEWITT, Lleyton AUS 7/6(4) 7/6(2) (4) BERDYCH, Tomas CZE def. SIMON, Gilles FRA 7/6(3) 6/2 CALLERI, Agustin ARG def. (5) MOYA, Carlos ESP 6/3 6/4 STEPANEK, Radek CZE def. SEPPI, Andreas ITA 7/5 2/6 6/4 QFTURSUNOV, Dmitry RUS def. GROSJEAN, Sebastien FRA 6/4 6/2 SANTORO, Fabrice FRA def. (LL) KOROLEV, E. RUS** 6/3 6/3 (W) GUCCIONE, Chris AUS def. (4) BERDYCH, Tomas CZE 4/6 7/6(6) 6/4 STEPANEK, Radek CZE def. CALLERI, Agustin ARG 6/2 6/4 SFTURSUNOV, Dmitry RUS def. SANTORO, Fabrice FRA 6/3 7/6(4) (W) GUCCIONE, Chris AUS def. STEPANEK, Radek CZE 7/6(5) 3/6 6/4 * (LL) LEVINE replaces Ancic ** (LL) KOROLEV replaces Del Potro
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Post by smash on Jan 4, 2008 18:33:16 GMT -5
ATP/WTA Player Watch Pre-Tournament. ATP Auckland - Llodra will fly in later than most players, having played in the Adelaide Sunday final; Ancic may not be 100% fit following his withdrawal from Adelaide with illness (flu). ATP Sydney - Gasquet makes a delayed appearance to the 2008 Tour, with ongoing niggling knee problems forcing last week's withdrawal from Adelaide; Wawrinka makes the trip fresh from a Saturday Doha final; Sirianni will be one to watch following his SF run in Adelaide; Del Potro withdrew from Adelaide doubles (following R1 defeat to Russell), citing a back problem; Guccione will fly in off the Adelaide Sunday doubles final; Moya makes a fairly lengthly trip from Chennai (Saturday); Stepanek retired with a foot injury during his R1 Adelaide match with Sirianni. In-play. ATP Auckland - (WC) Mario Ancic has pulled out of the Heineken open, he is replaced by (LL) Evgueny Korolev; The winner of the following matches will have to play two matches on wednesday: Ferrer v Hernandez, Johansson v Monaco, Lee v Llodra, Cakl v Cilic, Malisse v Nieminen, Ferrero v LevineATP Sydney - Paul-Henri Mathieu retires during his match against (LL) Evgueny Korolev with an injured hamstring.
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Post by smash on Jan 4, 2008 18:35:06 GMT -5
WTA Player Entry Lists Tournament Draws
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Post by smash on Jan 4, 2008 18:37:43 GMT -5
Daily Order of Play. * Main draw singles only. Saturday 12th January 2008. Auckland.Stadium 1.00 pm Doubles followed by Juan Carlos FERRERO vs Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER Sydney.CENTRE COURT Not before 7:30 PM Dmitry TURSUNOV (RUS) vs Chris GUCCIONE (AUS)
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Post by sLOw on Jan 4, 2008 18:56:11 GMT -5
Looking on the outright market for Auckland
Ferrer, Kohlschreiber, Johansson.
I hope Ferrer doesn't get the credit he deserves and is priced up well too high.
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Post by jimnik on Jan 4, 2008 21:13:45 GMT -5
Yeah I'm afraid Ferrer will probably be odds-on favourite to retain his title. Chela, Monaco, Ferrero and Nieminen a long way back.
I would fancy backing one of the outsiders, Ancic or Johansson. Could probably get odds of 30/1 for one of them.
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Post by smash on Jan 5, 2008 16:53:31 GMT -5
Yeah I'm afraid Ferrer will probably be odds-on favourite to retain his title. Chela, Monaco, Ferrero and Nieminen a long way back. I would fancy backing one of the outsiders, Ancic or Johansson. Could probably get odds of 30/1 for one of them. I don't think his draw did you any favours! Chances are that he won't lose before SF, and Nieminen/Malisse would be his toughest prospects there. Niemo will be due a rest by that stage, at any rate! ;D Chela or Johansson as his toughest final prospects imo, and I'd expect him to beat those two as well. He didn't perform so well in the end of season exhibitions he played in, but if he is fit and raring to go, it is hard to see him losing next week. As concerns backing one of the outsiders...I'd probably stay away from Ancic (we have no form to judge anyway), but Johansson looks good, if he can negotiate his tricky R1 with Monaco (possible, given that the Argentine isn't at his best on the faster courts).
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Post by smash on Jan 6, 2008 6:38:44 GMT -5
A few of my thoughts on this week's ATP draws: Auckland. Last year, Ferrer struggled through the draw, before thrashing Robredo in the final. The defending champion returns for another shot at the title, while Robredo, instead, tries his hands at the Sydney crown. Ferrer looks to be hot favourite to come through his quarter of the draw, playing any of Benneteau, Almagro or Acasuso in the QF. I'd be hard-pushed to predict a winner out of Almagro/Acasuso, although either man could struggle against the solid play of Benneteau in R2. Ferrer's resilience is, in turn, a bad match for Almagro and Acasuso. The winner of Malisse/Nieminen in R1 is likely to come through the 2nd quarter, featuring, among others, an ailing Ancic, and Ferrero. 2008 Adelaide champ, Llodra, will have to overcome a bad match in R1 (Lee's counter-punching style), while Ollie Rochus, T Johansson and Monaco will also be of threat in that section. I'd go as far as saying that the winner of Johansson/Monaco could feature in the SF. The bottom quarter of the draw also looks to be keenly contested, with Kohlschreiber facing early danger from the resilient Russell, and in-form Cilic, while Chela will probably have to withstand a barrage of aces from Querrey, in R2. SF onwards: Ferrer to face Malisse or Nieminen...his style isn't the nicest match for Malisse, so he'd be expected to come through, although a good day at the office for X-man could see him overpower FerrĂș. A good chance that Johansson battles his way to the SF, to face maybe Chela...possibility of a Ferrer/Johansson final, with Ferrer, once again, winning the Auckland crown. Value plays? Ferrer's 2.75 price-tag (VC) looks to be quite generous, considering I give him a 75-80% chance of defending his title. 13.00 odds on Monaco/Johansson look tempting, considering that I believe that the winner of their R1 match (edge to Johansson, imo) has a good shot at SF and beyond... Sydney. The draw is absolutely fantastic! I'm struggling to pick a winner in many of the matches, so the odds are likely to dictate how often I bet, this week. Verdasco was hot property in the second half of 2007, and I'd consider him having the best shot out of the guys in his quarter, to reach the SF. Lopez is a rough R1 draw, but his solid all-round game could be considered a bad match for his fellow-countryman, while he shouldn't have too much to fear from Grosjean/Luczak in R2. Gasquet will have to hit the ground running, given that Andreev has the capabilities to beat him from the back of the court, while Wawrinka is riding a wave of confidence, and Tursunov's "machine-gun" style play makes him a threat to virtually anyone. Defending champion, Blake, is the more likely player to come out of the 2nd quarter, although Santoro's slice and dice style could give him problems. With Isner and Darcis, among others, looking set to qualify, his biggest threat may come from them...and Isner, certainly, has the serve to stay with him. Hewitt should survive two likely serve-volleying tests in his opening 2 rounds (Mahut and Guccione), with a block-buster encounter with Berdych, in the QF, on the cards. The bottom quarter is hugely exciting, with no player having a particular advantage from the draw. Moya will have to work hard to break through Koubek's solid play, and will have to hope that Calleri doesn't play like he did in the first half of Doha, last week, if he isn't to get blown off the court in R2. Last year's Auckland runner-up, Robredo, may be cursing his decision to enter the stronger pre-Australian warm-up, given that Stepanek and Tsonga have the necessary offensive games to shoot him down, although, equally, the Spaniard's consistency can be considered a bad match for both players. SF onwards: A good chance that Blake makes the SF, to play Verdasco or Gasquet...the latter two have the brawn to wear him down, although, equally, the nature of his game is such that he could overpower both of them. Hewitt's solid game isn't the nicest match for Berdych, given that he can also out-manoeuvre the big Czech...but if Berdych could keep his head together, I'd be more inclined to side with him to advance to the SF. Absolutely no clue who will come out of the bottom quarter, although I'm going to go out on a limb and say it is NOT Robredo. ;D Maybe Moya? Either way, a good chance for Hewitt/Berdych to make the final, and I predict that either of them will beat Blake. Value Plays? Verdasco's 21.00 odds (VC) are the only ones I'd really consider touching. Other posters' thoughts/opinions very welcome! ;D
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Post by smash on Jan 6, 2008 7:22:43 GMT -5
Further to the above, I have split 2,00 units on the following 3 bets. I'm not a great fan of outrights, so I'm not going to splash out much on them...but now and again there seem to be a few good opportunities worth having a dabble in:
Ferrer to WIN Auckland @ 2.75 [VC] (1,00 unit) - shouldn't have any problems reaching QF...with Horna being the only qualifier that should really trouble him (potential R2). The Spaniard's resilient play is a bad match for head-cases Acasuso and Almagro, while his level should be a little too strong for Benneteau, who possesses similarities in style to the world #5. Ancic isn't 100% fit, so that helps, and Ferrero is a little bit washed up these days. Malisse and Nieminen are his biggest threats in the SF imo...Nieminen plays a similar style, but Ferrer, at near his best, is a level or two above the Finn...Malisse can, potentially, overpower Ferrer in a good performance, but he wasn't convincing, last week, when he needed to step up his game (Youzhny). Johansson, Monaco, Lee and Chela are, imo, his potential final opponents...no-one there he can't, theoretically beat. Anyway, should he reach this stage, his odds should be sufficiently low for a lay.
T Johansson to WIN Auckland @ 13.00 [VC] (0,50 units) - Johansson has been in better form since his resurgence on the US summer hardcourt swing, last year (following his Binghampton challenger win), and his form in Doha, last week, was promising. Make no mistake, his Auckland draw isn't easy, but, with some good serving performances, he will be difficult to beat. Monaco is weaker on hard courts (despite promising US summer hard court results); the Swede's solid all-round game is a bad match for Berrer; O. Rochus is tough, but not all that confident; Lee's counter-punching makes him another tough opponent, but beatable; Chela's solid game can hurt him, but it isn't as if the Argentine has a particularly big weapon. In all, there should be a chance to lay-off for profit from around the QF stage imo.
Monaco to WIN Auckland @ 15.00 [Gamebookers] (0,50 units) - This is basically a cover for the Johansson bet, as I don't think he is without chances to beat the Swede in R1. Monaco was one of the most improved players on the circuit, last year, and, should he negotiate a safe passage into R2, I think his opponents are such that he could use his strong baseline game to greater advantage, and potentially carve his way into SF, at least. The biggest threats are likely to come from Berrer and Llodra, whose powerful, offensive styles are more suited to this surface, and can put him under a lot of pressure, not only on the baseline, but also on his serve (which isn't the best in the business). Again, like the Johansson bet, I'm expecting a chance to lay off for profit by the QF stage.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 6, 2008 12:35:42 GMT -5
SydneyOh well, another week past by way too fast especially when you have been on a roll like me. But this is not going to stop me I have chosen one match for tonight --> Peter Luczak - Sebastien GrosjeanLuczak is simply underrated on hardcourts, that's the only reason I could explain why he is priced up @2.60, which seems way too high. Grosjean has always been a good player at the start of a new season and has a pretty good record in Down Under, he's reached the semifinals of the Australian Open way back in 2001 losing to his buddy Clement. The fact that he hasn't played any watchable Tennis off late makes me think that he is fading away pretty quick. I have put up a lay on Grosjean @1.63 and fired in a counter lay on Luczak @1.55, I am pretty confident and still I haven't used large "stakes". Once the odds on Luczak hit 1.55 I will take a nice 63% profit of my initial stake. That means that I actually bet on the odds of Luczak to come down to 1.55 during this match at odds of 1.63, which I consider pretty decent value if you want to call it that way I hope you have a great start to the week, BOL L *edit - I have moved the lay order on Luczak down to 1.50
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 6, 2008 15:52:25 GMT -5
Going pretty small on these, quite tired tonight, not really feeling it....
Dokic @ 1.57 Ladbrokes. Dokic!!! I was a massive fan of Jelena back in the day and it's awesome to see her back in a WTA event! She came through qualifying well, dominating her last two matches including against the No 1 seed in qualifying Meusberger. Here she has a really good draw for the first round and a great chance of a win. Muller has had an awful 6 months. Since reaching the final of an ITF event where she was the No 1 seed she's gone 2-12 and one of those wins was against a 16 year old Korean wildcard who hasn't played since. Muller lost to Pin last week only picking up 4 games so her form doesn't look to have improved. I'm biased here, and probably not great value, but I just want to bet on this match.
O Rochus @ 1.77. Rochus was whipped by Murray last week, but his main problems were on serve and that seemed to get better as the match went on. He has a great record here having reached a final and a semi and I think he can still play some decent stuff. I saw Berrer last week against ToJo and wasn't too impressed. He's very hit and miss and this looks a bad match up for him. Rochus will get enough balls back to force him into errors and he'll have to have an inspired day to get through I feel.
Lay Grosjean @ 1.61. Easy play to make here. Grosjean was in serious decline last year apart from one crazy week in Lyon and he doesn't appear to be too good this year either. I know Spadea played pretty well last week but I still think that's a bad loss. Luczak at home is dangerous and he seemed to be playing pretty well last week. His style and ability to play longer points should work well here, as Grosjeans unforced errors have been a problem in the past year.
Lopez @ 2.24. Both these fellas seemed to improve in the second half of last year which makes this an interesting contest. Both Spanish lefties who have quite aggressive games. Out of the two, I've always preferred Lopez, and I'm going for him in this one. Verdasco had the slightly better results last year but I like Lopez in the match up. H2H is 2-1 to Lopez all a while ago.
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sheva
New Member
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Post by sheva on Jan 6, 2008 17:55:36 GMT -5
I thought about not betting till the Australian Open but decided to have a try allready a week earlier:
Fish @ 1.60 is my first bet of the year. He plays Simon. Fish has done well at the end of last season and looks to have brought that form into the new year. He beat Bopanna and Luczak in the Hopman Cup and only lost in a final set tiebreak. His serve was on fire in those matches. Simon lost last week to eventual winner Llodra but the numbers he put on were not impressive at all. He seems to struggle finding form at the start of the season regarding his losses to Bracciali (Adelaide, 3 and 2) and Delic (AO, 3,0 and 2) last year. Simon is 7-9 on hard court over the last 12 months and 1-3 versus big servers. The style of Fish doesn't suit Simon and i find it hard to see Simon breaking the Fish serve.
I have to disagree with you Jez on Verdasco vs Lopez. I think Lopez is value in that match. Bear in mind that Lopez had a couple of very good runs at the end of last year and leads Verdasco 2-1 H2H. In those matches Verdasco was the favourite and managed to win only one of them. I think this one will go to 3 sets and Lopez might well win it.
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 6, 2008 18:20:09 GMT -5
Welcome sheva ;D Good luck with Fish, agree with you on Lopez
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Post by smash on Jan 6, 2008 18:27:32 GMT -5
Took this earlier, and it is my first bet of the week. Very brief analysis:
YTD: 3-3 (+0,62 units [+10.5% ROI]).
Sela over Benneteau @ 2.50 (0,75 units) - Sela reminds me a lot of Ollie Rochus (who, incidentally, has beaten Benneteau on their only previous meeting)...plays a similar, resilient game (and even is, physically, a little like him!), and this is a style that Benneteau isn't entirely comfortable with (e.g. 2007 defeats to Nieminen and Schuettler). The Israeli iscurrently in the form of his life, rounding off a huge finish to 2007 with a heroic Davis Cup display against Chile, ATP Tokyo QF, 3 hard court challenger finals (2 wins) and a few promising exhibition wins, mid-December (St. Anton trophy; wins over Safin and Koubek). Benneteau possess a nice game of controlled aggression, but he has been able to impose it more to his advantage in the faster indoor conditions, rather on the slower, more exposed (e.g. wind) outdoor courts. Simply put, I'm siding with the red-hot Israeli (no disgrace losing to Hewitt, last week), on a surface which he has performed best on, by a country mile. More accurate odds should be around 2.20 imo.
Value (100): 2.50 odds x 45% confidence = 112.5
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Post by smash on Jan 6, 2008 18:38:09 GMT -5
I thought about not betting till the Australian Open but decided to have a try allready a week earlier: Fish @ 1.60 is my first bet of the year. He plays Simon. Fish has done well at the end of last season and looks to have brought that form into the new year. He beat Bopanna and Luczak in the Hopman Cup and only lost in a final set tiebreak. His serve was on fire in those matches. Simon lost last week to eventual winner Llodra but the numbers he put on were not impressive at all. He seems to struggle finding form at the start of the season regarding his losses to Bracciali (Adelaide, 3 and 2) and Delic (AO, 3,0 and 2) last year. Simon is 7-9 on hard court over the last 12 months and 1-3 versus big servers. The style of Fish doesn't suit Simon and i find it hard to see Simon breaking the Fish serve. I have to disagree with you Jez on Verdasco vs Lopez. I think Lopez is value in that match. Bear in mind that Lopez had a couple of very good runs at the end of last year and leads Verdasco 2-1 H2H. In those matches Verdasco was the favourite and managed to win only one of them. I think this one will go to 3 sets and Lopez might well win it. Hey sheva, nice to see you here! BOL with Fish...I agree that he should win, but I'm not confident enough to bet it. As concerns Lopez/Verdasco, I was only describing how I felt the draw would unfold...not whether either player is value. As it happens, I think the price is perfect, and not worth betting. You can make a case against both players, really...VERDASCO - not dealt well with big servers (e.g. Berdych, Tursunov and Roddick), or serve-volleyers (e.g. Karlovic, Mirnyi, Llodra and Henman)...doesn't have as much time as he likes/needs to prepare for the next shot, especially if he needs to react quickly to hit a passing shot. LOPEZ - hasn't enjoyed playing solid baseliners (e.g. Ferrer, Nieminen and Robredo), perhaps attributed to his lack of penetration in his groundstrokes, and also the fact that his backhand is a glaring weakness. Surface favours Lopez considerably more, but Verdasco has more recent edge in form...not only post-French Open ATP results (avoided R1 exits in 13 straight events), but also won Spanish indoor exhibition event in mid-December, while Lalo was schooled by Ferrer (who has similarities to Verdasco). In all, I'd give Verdasco the overall edge, although I wouldn't put a penny on the match. Good luck, and welcome to the forum!
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