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Post by smash on Jan 6, 2008 19:27:36 GMT -5
Adding (with very brief analysis): Querrey (over Mayer) x Blake (over Santoro) @ 1.91 (1,25 units) - Querrey isn't the most reliable of players, but Mayer has REALLY struggled to cope with big serves (e.g. 2007 defeats to Almagro, Fish, Hanescu, Acasuso and Berdych), and the medium-pace hard court should play nicely to Querrey's liking. Call me a MUG, but I'm prepared to boost the value of this bet with Blake. ;D Again, not the most reliable player, but Santoro's results indicate that such big-hitting "loose cannon" styles can hit straight through his tricky slice and dice game (e.g. Malisse, Monfils), as Blake has done on all 4 previous occasions. He is the twice defending champion here, so clearly the conditions suit his game. If Blake busts the double, I'll very quickly learn my lesson.
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swish
New Member
Posts: 8
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Post by swish on Jan 6, 2008 19:56:10 GMT -5
i dont like the card too much today and tend to be more careful at the beginning of the season, i really dont see anything to put serious money on right now and might wait until the AO starts before i get some serious action
and btw this forum is awesome, a lot of good insights
good luck with your bets fellas
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sheva
New Member
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Post by sheva on Jan 6, 2008 20:03:54 GMT -5
I don't think it is a good idea to put money on Blake in his first time out there. I saw Santoro play last week and the old men still got his tricks. He can hit all angles and on his day can really trouble James without too much matchplay. Santoro can counterpunch Blake's grounstrokes and reads the game very well at the net. In my opinion this is a very dangerous double..
I like your Sela bet btw..
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sheva
New Member
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Post by sheva on Jan 7, 2008 1:28:38 GMT -5
Fish being dumped out by Simon 7-6 6-1. Fish only won 33 percent on his second delivery. Horrible performance..
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Post by smash on Jan 7, 2008 2:52:56 GMT -5
What a disaster! However, I still had solid reasons for playing Sela and Querrey, in particular, although I've learned my lesson with Blake (not that his result mattered anyway). Sela over Benneteau @ 2.50 (0,75 units) Lost. Querrey (over Mayer) x Blake (over Santoro) @ 1.91 (1,25 units) Lost. YTD: 3-5 (-1,38 units [-17.3% ROI]).
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Post by smash on Jan 7, 2008 2:54:19 GMT -5
i dont like the card too much today and tend to be more careful at the beginning of the season, i really dont see anything to put serious money on right now and might wait until the AO starts before i get some serious action and btw this forum is awesome, a lot of good insights good luck with your bets fellas Cheers swish, nice to have you around.
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Post by lephter on Jan 7, 2008 5:52:23 GMT -5
Hello everyone ! I was impressed with the forum and i just couldn't stay away ...
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 7, 2008 7:18:51 GMT -5
Welsome guys ;D
Bit of a weird night for me, all matches going to 3 sets with the 2 favourites winning and the 2 dogs losing.
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Post by lephter on Jan 7, 2008 9:04:09 GMT -5
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Post by lephter on Jan 7, 2008 9:11:40 GMT -5
Ancic withdrew from Adelaide citing flu as the main reason.He hasn't trained for the past 10 days and it looks like his condition is not at 100% yet: ""The feature match tomorrow is between fourth seed and former French Open champion Juan Carlos Ferrero, of Spain, and Croatian wildcard Mario Ancic, a top-10 player two years ago before being hit by injury and bad luck. However, the encounter is in doubt, with Ancic, who withdrew from the Adelaide International last week because of flu, still feeling unwell and having tests in hospital today."" Source: www.stuff.co.nz/4346758a10393.htmlNow the question is...is there value in Ferrero at the given odds? Or is this information already included in them? Ferrero doesn't usually start the season firing at all cylinders ...
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Post by sLOw on Jan 7, 2008 12:04:12 GMT -5
Welcome to the forum lepther, hope you like it!
Thanks for the links, pretty good stuff.
I for myself will stay away of backing Ferrero, will be back with my plays (if there are any) later!
BOL
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Post by sLOw on Jan 7, 2008 14:26:52 GMT -5
What can I say? Pretty much dislike the card today. No value for a possible trade, just nothing. I'll give it a pass today and hopefully be back tomorrow Do whatever you want, but don't bet on any match today, take it as an advice BOL
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Post by sLOw on Jan 7, 2008 15:12:01 GMT -5
Not quite right, I found something. Auckland R1Xavier Malisse v Jarkko NieminenMalisse has got a great record against the lefties on tour, he has beaten them 28 times and just lost 13 matches against them. The H2H between those two contenders is tied at 1-1 with Malisse winning their last encounter back in 2006 at the US Open (was a straight set victory by the belgian), the defeat comes on the dirt back in 2003 at Barcelona, Nieminen clinched that one in 3 sets. I like Malisse chances here as he is under pressure to gain some points that he has lost last week when not defending the Chennai title. Nieminen on the other hand has reached the final of Adelaide but getting smacked in the final by a decent playing Llodra (I still think that Jarkko should have won easily). Review- Record against lefties / Malisse - great determination / Malisse - great defense / both - serve / Malisse - counterpunching / Nieminen - passing shots / giving the edge to Malisse - return / Nieminen - speed / they both are pretty fast - technique / Malisse Looking into their respective games WOULD tell you that Malisse is the better player. Another HUGE reason to back Malisse is Nieminen's TERRIBLE record in back to back tournaments having played on the final weekend of the previous week. Jarkko could only win 19 out of 36 matches. That means he has lost 17 first round matches after reaching the final weekend in the previous week. Malisse has to be the bet (various odds range: 1 .9-1.97). Wishing you a good day.
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 7, 2008 16:14:26 GMT -5
Really busy with poker tournaments so this is going to be short. Plan on staying up late to get some trading done though, like the look of this card.
Rosol @ 2.04. Just a fade on Roitman. He's awful on hard courts and making his first appearance of the year. Rosol came through qualifying and I like qualifiers.
Ferrero @ 1.83. Worth a pop because of Ancic's fitness issues. H2H 3-0 to Ferrero. Also thought he was decent last year and Ancic never got back to his best last year.
Going to play X-man too because of the reasons lo has posted.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 7, 2008 16:19:19 GMT -5
Like your plays, not sure about Juanqui. I remember he got smacked by Massu around the same time last year, but if Mario is not fully fit, JCF will destroy him. Just don't like the dodgy looking matchups at all! p.s. BOL with your poker mate, think we could set up a poker room for the TB-Forum? lol
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