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Post by sLOw on Jan 5, 2008 9:32:14 GMT -5
I actually cannot believe that Stan is nearly 4ish, looking for a good trade here! Hope for an usual Muzz' slow start with Stan crusing to take a nice green book
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Post by sLOw on Jan 5, 2008 12:54:06 GMT -5
I have gained so much respect for Carlos Moya, unbelievable performance. I do think that he will have a great year and finish as top15 at least. Further I predict him a decent showing at the Australian Open, he'll be seeded 16 or 17 I might be wrong but he would face a seed in R3. With a good draw he can possibly get to the 4th round or even further. His forehand is as good as it has been back when he won Roland Garros, he just got tight in the decisive situations. Respect to Nadal, didn't play his best stuff and still way behind the baseline but he keeps coming in inch for inch each match, which is promising to see.
We have very interesting 3 weeks ahead of us, my darkhorse pick for the Australian Open: Moya, T. Johansson, Wawrinka (when he plays freely!)
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Post by sLOw on Jan 5, 2008 14:34:23 GMT -5
Thoughts on tomorrow's final matches
Nieminen V Llodra
I'm not willing to risk a cent on this match, hard to predict what will happen after Nieminen crushed Tsonge in two sets. At this stage you never know which one turns up and which one just wants to get it done quickly.
NO BET
Youzhny V Nadal
Misha has beaten Rafa quite a few times on a hardcourt, I expect that he'll come out hitting freely. He'll obviously make Rafa run, fatigue could be the key here.
Looking to get a nice trade going by laying Nadal @ very short 1.49! Counter bet fired in the market @1.93, should most likely be that high after a break for Youzhny.
BOL
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Post by smash on Jan 5, 2008 16:44:07 GMT -5
Thoughts on tomorrow's final matches Nieminen V Llodra I'm not willing to risk a cent on this match, hard to predict what will happen after Nieminen crushed Tsonge in two sets. At this stage you never know which one turns up and which one just wants to get it done quickly. NO BETYouzhny V Nadal Misha has beaten Rafa quite a few times on a hardcourt, I expect that he'll come out hitting freely. He'll obviously make Rafa run, fatigue could be the key here. Looking to get a nice trade going by laying Nadal @ very short 1.49! Counter bet fired in the market @1.93, should most likely be that high after a break for Youzhny.BOL I'm not playing the Adelaide final, either, but it is only because Nieminen's price is too short. Sure, Llodra has apparently been playing well this week, but the match-up isn't really to his advantage (e.g. Murray, Davydenko, Hewitt and O. Rochus)...Nieminen possesses a relatively decent return and is certainly the more superior player from the back of the court. As for Chennai, I think there is a danger that one looks too much into Nadal's 4-hour epic against Moya...let's face it, Nadal is the strongest and fittest player out there. Youzhny has the tools to hurt him (e.g. ability to mix up play...can move Nadal off the baseline with slice/acute angles from one-handed backhand), and the surface will suit his game more...but, for him, the match-up isn't so great anyway (e.g. 2007 defeats to Davydenko, Koubek and Lee). I'm not touching him at less than 3.00. There are punters out there who are quite good at profiting from Federer, Nadal and Djokovic defeats (those players in particular), but I'm not one of them! Good luck to anyone playing! ...and further opinions are very welcome, so please don't just lurk!
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Post by sLOw on Jan 5, 2008 17:00:00 GMT -5
You might be right, but Rafa will have to play INSIDE the baseline to cause Youzhny any problems. This is a match that can go either way, I expect both guys to be less than 1.8 inplay.
I have discovered pretty crazy line movements inplay, how can a 1.50 priced guy be +2.30 after he got broken early in the first set, surely he faces Karlovic that's something else.
That's the way I do my business but each to their own!
BOL
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Post by smash on Jan 5, 2008 17:22:20 GMT -5
You might be right, but Rafa will have to play INSIDE the baseline to cause Youzhny any problems. This is a match that can go either way, I expect both guys to be less than 1.8 inplay. I have discovered pretty crazy line movements inplay, how can a 1.50 priced guy be +2.30 after he got broken early in the first set, surely he faces Karlovic that's something else. That's the way I do my business but each to their own! BOL I was just talking about pre-match betting. As you say, I think this is a match that could be best traded, given the threat that Youzhny poses...good chance for some wild line fluctuations. ;D
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 5, 2008 17:55:20 GMT -5
Layed Nadal @ 1.49 for pretty decent stakes (biggest of the week for me). We've seen this match up a lot, and it's currently 6-3 to Nadal. But from what we have seen, Youzhny has had quite a bit of success, especially on quicker surfaces. Youzhny has been class in his last two matches after a dodgy one earlier in the week. Nadal had a 4 hour war with Moya today, and that is a decent factor against him. He may be physically a bit tired, but we all know how fit he is, but the main thing is that he really really struggled against Moya. He was down in the third set and probably should have lost, he's going to have to play better than that against Youzhny. With the speed of this surface, I think Youzhny can get a lot of cheap points, his serving was excellent against Cilic, and I think he can come through.
I'm expecting this price to drift overnight, and I'll then back Nadal for a little bit, but leaving most of the action on Youzhny.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 5, 2008 17:56:04 GMT -5
You might be right, but Rafa will have to play INSIDE the baseline to cause Youzhny any problems. This is a match that can go either way, I expect both guys to be less than 1.8 inplay. I have discovered pretty crazy line movements inplay, how can a 1.50 priced guy be +2.30 after he got broken early in the first set, surely he faces Karlovic that's something else. That's the way I do my business but each to their own! BOL I was just talking about pre-match betting. As you say, I think this is a match that could be best traded, given the threat that Youzhny poses...good chance for some wild line fluctuations. ;D I try to avoid getting involved too much pre-match.
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Post by smash on Jan 6, 2008 4:43:23 GMT -5
I'm not playing the Adelaide final, either, but it is only because Nieminen's price is too short. Sure, Llodra has apparently been playing well this week, but the match-up isn't really to his advantage (e.g. Murray, Davydenko, Hewitt and O. Rochus)...Nieminen possesses a relatively decent return and is certainly the more superior player from the back of the court. Betting on value has, particularly for a week like this, meant the difference between a profitable week, and a horrible week...I know that I certainly dodged a number of bullets! A number of unexpected results in the last 7 days! Congrats to Llodra, wasn't expecting that!
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Post by sLOw on Jan 6, 2008 7:14:35 GMT -5
Congrats Llodra! Already got a green book in Rafa's match, so now I'm looking to maximize the profit!
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Post by sLOw on Jan 6, 2008 8:15:53 GMT -5
That was a wicked match, cost me a bit profit but not a significant sum. Hope everyone had a good start to the new season, see you in week 2!
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