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Post by smash on Jan 3, 2008 16:52:09 GMT -5
Friday insight/discussion! Okay, I'd like to get some tennis discussion going here! I know many are cautious betting at the start of a season, which is understandable, but you may have views you wish to share! Here are my thoughts on tomorrow's action, to get the ball rolling! ;D Adelaide.Hewitt/Tsonga - Stats-wise, Hewitt is looking pretty solid, and it seems that his off-season training has been paying early dividends. Tsonga is his first real test, and Hewitt will be fired up to avenge a Queen's 2007 defeat to the Frenchman. Generally, Hewitt's counter-punching style isn't a nice match for net-rushers (if you forget his h2h with Karlovic!), and I don't think that Tsonga's return or groundstrokes are anything for Hewitt to be too worried about. Spadea/Nieminen - both men play a fairly similar style - neither has a big serve, and both look to grind out the points. Spadea has been on a downward curve for the last year or so, and one would expect Nieminen's greater consistency to shine through. Becker/Llodra - I'd make Llodra the marginal favourite here, for two reasons: (1) He is the more "stable" player - has a more reliable serve (Becker often serves approx. 50% 1st serves), and is more creative from the back of the court; (2) Serve-volley doesn't seem to be a nice match for the German (e.g. Zverev, Karlovic, Petzschner, Dancevic, Isner et al). Note also that Llodra is left-handed. Sirianni/Mathieu - not got a particular view on this as I haven't a clue as to how Sirianni plays. However, I do think people can get carried away with his run...Stepanek wasn't 100%, and, besides, hasn't got a great track record in Australia; Querrey's track record hasn't been great for some time. Chennai.Nadal/Garcia-Lopez - really, a horrible match-up for GGL, given that his mindless ball bashing style meets the most solid baseline game on the planet! He'd have to consistently paint the lines if he is to have any realistic shot at winning, hence the low odds. Moya/Serra - interesting one. Serra is solid, but nothing much else, so Moya has a good shot at breaking through the Frenchman's defence, particularly with his big forehand. Still, Serra's persistency could pay off and make this a close match...Carlos can become inconsistent if pushed, and Serra would be wise to target the backhand, which the Spaniard likes to run around, putting him off-balance for his shot. Malisse/Youzhny - value in Malisse's odds has completely evaporated, to the extent that I believe he is actually too short. Youzhny isn't all that comfortable with powerful, aggressive tennis (e.g. Gonzalez, Blake), but he is there to clean up such opponents if they start spraying balls (e.g. Gabashvili), as they have a tendency to do when playing this style. Cilic/Haase - both are powerful and rather inconsistent players, but Haase plays the more risky game, giving a greater chance that he could be exposed (e.g. Cilic h2h with Gulbis). Doha. Davydenko/Murray - have made a bet on this, so please refer to analysis which I will post below, soon. Ljubicic/Wawrinka - very hard to side with either player. Stan struggles to return big serves (e.g. Berdych, Karlovic; 0-3 vs Ljubicic), so a good serving performance from Ljubicic will make life hard for the Swiss. Otherwise, I do consider Wawrinka to be the greater threat in all other departments, particularly in the rallies...he should feel comfortable dictating to Ljubicic with controlled aggression, while the Croat is often guilty of not doing a lot with the ball. Concentration could be key, which is often a failing point for Wawrinka (e.g. poor service game per set, not helped by general, inconsistent serving). Please feel free to add your own thoughts...even better, disagree with me (as long as your post is constructive)! Will update draw results and OOP in an hour or so, when I have a little more time. If another mod wishes to do it, that would be awesome. |
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Post by nikolaysconscience on Jan 3, 2008 16:57:38 GMT -5
Yep I'm on Malisse at 10/1 e/w as of yesterday. Value again  |
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Post by nikolaysconscience on Jan 3, 2008 17:02:13 GMT -5
Can't disagree with too much of that, posted very similar thoughts on the Wawa match, and I'm hopeful he can make it through.
I'm on Davydenko at odds of 2.3. Although I've yet to make up my mind on who the likely victor is I believe that his odds will shorten considerably by morning, and at the least will get a value bet.
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Post by nikolaysconscience on Jan 3, 2008 17:08:00 GMT -5
Can't believe it, Skybet go 9/1 on Wawrinka.
Expected odds of 2.3 tommorow.
Guess will be about 3.4 in the final.
(Worst odds scenario imo)
2.3 x 3.4 = 7.82.
Skys odds = 10.
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Post by nikolaysconscience on Jan 3, 2008 17:12:06 GMT -5
Sorry. Took 2.4 on Davy not 2.3.
That 9/1 is an easy arb at the very least, presuming I haven't got my maths horribly wrong.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 3, 2008 17:47:44 GMT -5
I have had enough of Adelaide, burned a few holes in my aussie wallet!
I just can't fade Llegs, neither PHM and the other matches are horrible to predict.
Chennai - Nadal is a no bet, Moya is a no bet, like Malisse as well as Haase but probably go huge on Muzz. Only play so far is Stan, I fear I've put too much on...
BOL
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swish
New Member
Posts: 8
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Post by swish on Jan 3, 2008 17:50:23 GMT -5
nice analysis jez
spot on on Wawa imo, concentration and smart play is the key to beat Ljubo, Kohli was the better player today when it came down to the rallies and this shouldnt be much different with Wawa 2morrow, but will he be focused enough on his serve and put controlled pressure on Ivan without making too many mistakes, Kohl at times was just not smart and patient enough today
i was hoping for a better odds for Llodra, not quite sure if i like him at his current price
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Post by nikolaysconscience on Jan 3, 2008 17:56:18 GMT -5
I have had enough of Adelaide, burned a few holes in my aussie wallet! I just can't fade Llegs, neither PHM and the other matches are horrible to predict. Chennai - Nadal is a no bet, Moya is a no bet, like Malisse as well as Haase but probably go huge on Muzz. Only play so far is Stan, I fear I've put too much on... BOL With regards to Wawrinka, I know the feeling. When I see value like that I just can't help myself. I'm in a position to easily cover myself though if needs be. Will work out what I'm doing in the morning, may well just let it run because I'm fairly confident. |
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 3, 2008 18:06:36 GMT -5
Malisse @ 1.83 WillHill v Youzhny. Last year Malisse was awesome in winning Chennai and Delray Beach (including wins over Nadal and Blake) but then had a nightmare with a wrist injury keeping him out for 7 months and he had a little struggle coming back. However, he looks to be OK this week and really needs a bit effort at definding his title as his ranking is already down to 109. I think the form here is important and should give him a lot of confidence. Youzhny was very good last year, but not sure about this week. Had a crazy match with Roger-Vasselin (who let's be honest he should have crushed) going down 5-0 in the first set then winning it 7-5, losing the second 6-1 then coming back 6-2 in the third. No idea what was going on, but clearly he was having some problems - on a quick surface like Chennai, you don't lose serve that many times that easily without some sort of problem. H2H is 3-1 to Malisse with Youzhny taking the first meeting.
Haase @ 2.42 v Cilic. Willing to take the dog in this one. Backed Cilic against Mahut and he got a great win, but I think he should be more like 1.8 in this contest. Haase got a great win against Baghdatis, then backed it up against Zovko where he could easily have put in a dodgy performance. Haase has a lot of potential and I'm willing to have a go at this price.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 3, 2008 18:17:54 GMT -5
I have had enough of Adelaide, burned a few holes in my aussie wallet! I just can't fade Llegs, neither PHM and the other matches are horrible to predict. Chennai - Nadal is a no bet, Moya is a no bet, like Malisse as well as Haase but probably go huge on Muzz. Only play so far is Stan, I fear I've put too much on... BOL With regards to Wawrinka, I know the feeling. When I see value like that I just can't help myself. I'm in a position to easily cover myself though if needs be. Will work out what I'm doing in the morning, may well just let it run because I'm fairly confident. Yeah it's just mad. I could only find value in one of about 10 matches today, for example I felt that Cilic would have a brainfart and laid him after the first set, then left my computer for a few minutes just to find him down a break, glad he broke back and I got rid 50% of my liability, laid him again when he was another break up and he seemed to get into it again so I didn't close my posistion and took a small loss with huge green on the other side. This one could have gone either way once Mahut got into it but well, that's why it's called gambling afterall. I'm spending most of my weekly profit on Stan, so I don't really feel the presure and will most likely let it run... |
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Post by smash on Jan 3, 2008 19:32:42 GMT -5
Two for me today: Davydenko over Murray @ 2.34 (0,75 units) - Murray has the momentum given that he has won their last 2 matches but both wins came during a time (pre-March 2007) when he was almost the Tour's hottest property. While he may be playing well this week, there are, still, for me, a couple of underlying concerns (e.g. the 1/6 Schuettler set). As concerns the match-up, obviously both have brilliant returning abilities, and are two of the very best baseline players in the world, so we should expect a number of breaks either way. Murray's variation in play (e.g. ability to bring Davydenko into net with short slice) can certainly upset the Russian, but, equally, if he makes too many errors in trying to mix up the play (as he can have a tendency to do), he will leave himself a little exposed. The Scot also has the stronger serve, but this can often be negated by a rather poor percentage (usually sub-55%), and I happen to think, on evidence of seeing a few games of Davydenko/Tursunov, yesterday, that Davydenko is serving quite well (not only consistency, but also some nice pace imo), which should help the latter out a little. In all, I can't give Davydenko less than 45% chance. Value (100): 2.34 odds x 45% confidence = 105.3Llodra (over Becker) x Nieminen (over Spadea) @ 2.72 (0,75 units) - happy to take Llodra as the marginal underdog, for the reasons stated above. Also note that Becker has a history of struggling against serve-volleyers (e.g. Isner, Karlovic, Zverev, Petzschner and Dancevic - all in 2007). This is a match likely to come down to a few important points, so their respective tiebreak records worry me a little (Becker 15-13 over last 12 months; Llodra 9-14), but I see no reason why the German should, otherwise, be a favourite (especially given how well Llodra has been serving, this week), remembering also how he struggled to find wins, at times, last season. I've added Nieminen to boost the value of the bet a little. Basically, both play a fairly similar "grinding" game, but Nieminen, these days, seems to play it a fair bit better than Spadea, as wins over Canas and Robredo, last season, would suggest (while Spadea lost to the likes of Hewitt and Tipsarevic). Fitness may also become an issue given that one would expectmost points to be keenly contested - Nieminen's short stint in the army, over the off-season, should have kept him nice and sharp, while Spadea, at 33-years old, isn't getting any younger. Value (100): 2.72 odds x 50% confidence = 136. Good luck to everyone else playing!  |
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Post by smash on Jan 3, 2008 19:45:21 GMT -5
Can't do a lot with my Hopman Cup outright bet. Jankovic should be praised/slated (choose whichever you prefer) for continuing to play through a rather bad leg injury, but I can't see the Serbs getting away with it for a 3rd time. Williams should, in my eyes, be favourite to beat her anyway...Djokovic would level it up for Serbia. Doubles to be crucial...Williams/Fish on a par with Golovin/Clement. Bigger serves (as opposed to returning Clement's, for example) likely to make life harder for Jankovic on the return; Williams and Fish are also very capable at the net. I'd predict 2-1 win for USA, but I'm not going to cry over a 1 unit loss when we're only in the first week of a very long season! Learn from the mistakes and move on...
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Post by sLOw on Jan 3, 2008 19:52:45 GMT -5
Good luck J!
I cannot agree with Davydenko. Simply can't see Murray getting broken the way he's been serving off late, his forehand is sharp and the backhand does the damage as usual. Davydenko is serving in the low 100mph's serves which Murray will crack away for winners time after time. Should my Stan bet come through --> Max. bet on Muzza. but as you once said opposing eachother doesn't prevent us from being profitable! BOL
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 4, 2008 7:37:50 GMT -5
Ljubicic @ 1.89 v Wawrinka. I was checking this match out last night and virtually everyone was tipping Wawrinka to win. Hence Ljubicic has drifted from 1.73 to 1.89 - why the hell didn't I lay Ljub last night, it was so obvious? Anyway, I thought the 1.73-1.75 was fair so I'm going to take Ljubicic today. Wawrinka has appeared to be excellent this week, but he hasn't been on TV so I don't think people can be that sure. He's beaten Martin and C Rochus which should be easy then trashed Calleri - but looking at the scoreboard it did seem very easy, not sure Calleri was 100%. As I've said before I thought Ljubicic was excellent in his first match, then got a walkover and had a bit of a struggle against Kohlschreiber. I think that match will help him as he had to come through some tough moments and Wawrinka has a similar style of game to Kohl, although he does most things a little better. Ljubicic now stands at 16-2 in this event, and will be very tough to knock over. H2H is 3-0 to Ljubicic but Wawrinka has improved since all of them.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 4, 2008 9:37:07 GMT -5
As expected, easy win by Stan. Now it's Muzza time: |
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