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Post by mrintensity on Jan 4, 2008 9:45:44 GMT -5
H2H 2-2 with Murray winning the last two but that was when he was really hot early last year. Don't think he's at that level this week, and had a couple of tough moments losing a first set to Schuettler and a big struggle in the first set against Johansson. Davydenko has been better than I expected this week. His serve looks a lot better than later last year and in general I've been impressed this week. Seen Murray drifting a touch today, which I think is fair - lol, just checked and the late money is coming for Murray which is a bit strange as he'd been going out for the past couple of hours. I think Davydenko has a good chance in this, especially early on, he could well take the first set. also note Murray was tolding his back a bit yesterday, no idea if it will be affecting him today.
Actually, just layed Murray @ 1.65 as it should be over 1.70 like it was before.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 4, 2008 9:48:02 GMT -5
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 4, 2008 9:58:00 GMT -5
You're on already!
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Post by sLOw on Jan 4, 2008 10:02:36 GMT -5
Got some of that tasty 2.4ish on Muzz
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Post by sLOw on Jan 4, 2008 10:22:41 GMT -5
I should have doubled the stake at such stupid odds!
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Post by sLOw on Jan 4, 2008 10:23:29 GMT -5
It was clear as water, I mean as soon as Donk misses a first serve it looks pretty bad for him---
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Post by sLOw on Jan 4, 2008 11:19:48 GMT -5
Easy as expected, hope you managed to lay him!
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Post by nikolaysconscience on Jan 4, 2008 12:49:43 GMT -5
Great day today with Stan remaining solid and getting through in two.
I now find myself sitting on significant three figure profit should Wawrinka win, having already secured myself a nice profit in taking a fair amount e/w.
Historical factors are relatively encouraging, and Stan holds a 2-0 h2h record over Muzza, who apparently struggles to deal with his kick serve especially.
However, despite Wawa being much improved of late and the exisiting h2h record I cant help but think that Muzza will move him about the court, finding nice angles and exposing his relatively poor footwork and courtspeed, Stan is especially prone to being wrong footed with the ball being hit behind him.
I see the final going one of two ways, it being very tight and going right down to the very last or Murray putting on an absolute clinic and exposing Wawrinka's principal weakness.
I'm reluctant to take Murray at anywhere near 1.3 as I feel that this price is a bit of an insult, but I really don't know how to play it.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 4, 2008 14:18:10 GMT -5
Laying Muzza to get on heavily, that's Muzza for you! I've made some nice amount by backing him when he went odds on, especially today and against Schuettler!
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Post by sLOw on Jan 4, 2008 14:45:47 GMT -5
Luckily I didn't take Malisse, pretty crappy performance! Totally shocked by Llegs loss to baby Ali, Mathieu utter crap! But well done to Joe, will have a bet if I get +3.00 odds. Ali over Shark is decent as well, need to check the line. Might give it ago @+2.5
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 4, 2008 17:49:54 GMT -5
Llodra @ 1.61 Pinnacle v Sirianni. Llodra has been very impressive this week, beating some decent guys, he's looked very solid of serve and is playing well when it's tight. He's several levels above his opponent, and I think the class will tell. Sirianni is someone I know very little about. He's going to be 33 in a couple of weeks, and has a career high rank of 199 in 2003 and is currently 322. He had a decent run in challengers at the end of last year and seems to have carried that forward this week. Stepanek retired against him, then he beat the woefully inconsistant Querrey and an excellent final set breaker win against Mathieu. That match will be remember for all of the chances Mathieu missed, and to be honest I think Sirianni has been lucky with the draw to get this far. Llodra should take this down comfortably.
Tsonga @ 1.8 Ladbrokes v Nieminen. Nice price from Ladbrokes for this one. Tsonga struggled in the first round but since then he's been absolutely flying destroying Gulbis and Hewitt in the last couple of days. He's the type of guy that when he gets on a roll he is very tough to stop and I can't see Nieminen doing it. Nieminen had a bit of a war with Spadea coming through in 3 breakers and that's really going to hurt in the heat. Nieminen is the type that likes to build rallies and move people around and I can't see it happening in this match - Tsonga will just hit through him too often.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 4, 2008 18:00:53 GMT -5
Nieminen V Tsonga
This matchup is pretty interesting, Tsonga obviously has the better weapons. His serve and forehand are huge, Nieminen has a decent backhand which could cause Tsonga some problems. I expected Tsonga to be odds on but he's priced up @1.75 so not interesting for me. I don't know why Nieminen's odds are that big.
NO BET
Llodra V Sirianni
Momentum could well be the key in this match and Sirianni has got lots of confidence coming into this match with a +20-1 record in the past few months, been playing exciting stuff lately. The punters underrate his performance by pricing him up @2.75. Llodra has no real weapon beside a decent serve and volleying skill. I have seen a few Davis Cup doubles matches and he's been ripping the backhand return pretty well, but that should not be a factor in this match. Likely to place a bet on Sirianni to lay off inplay.
Nadal V Moya
NO BET
Youzhny V Cilic
NO BET
* will surely put some money on Youzhny outright, possibly closing the position inplay.
Murray V Wawrinka
Murray is going to win this one in two tight sets. Hoping for a bad start just like today to back Muzz' at approx. 1.7-8ish, might get evens if I am lucky.
if that doesn't happen - NO BET
I don't really care what's on the card for this week as I am very pleased how the first week has progressed so far (up 800€ approx). I've had a pretty poor start to the week, being down quite a bit before getting back on track with a few somehow lucky decisions inplay, but that's life. LOL!
I wish every week would be that good!
Cheers,
Lo
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Post by sLOw on Jan 4, 2008 18:03:10 GMT -5
Davenhorse 15% interest tonight, anyone? Rezai will get blown off the court but I won't touch WTA again, got somewhat burned last time.
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Post by smash on Jan 4, 2008 18:42:53 GMT -5
nice analysis jez spot on on Wawa imo, concentration and smart play is the key to beat Ljubo, Kohli was the better player today when it came down to the rallies and this shouldnt be much different with Wawa 2morrow, but will he be focused enough on his serve and put controlled pressure on Ivan without making too many mistakes, Kohl at times was just not smart and patient enough today i was hoping for a better odds for Llodra, not quite sure if i like him at his current price Thanks mate, looks like we had the same ideas as concerned Stan...very happy to see him win (one of my fave players). Hope you took Llodra in the end!
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Post by smash on Jan 4, 2008 18:52:58 GMT -5
Serbia to WIN the Hopman Cup @ 2.06 (1,00 unit) Lost.Surprised they got as far as they did, considering Jankovic's injury. Davydenko over Murray @ 2.34 (0,75 units) Lost.Not too surprised...I rarely win on Murray's matches! Llodra (over Becker) x Nieminen (over Spadea) @ 2.72 (0,75 units) Won!Got a little lucky by the sounds of things... YTD: 3-3 (+0,62 units [+10.5% ROI]).Can't find value in Saturday's card. Not likely to bet again this week...probably the only match I'd consider taking a position on would be Adelaide final, and I rather think I would be hard-pushed to pick a winner in that one anyway.
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