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Post by smash on Jan 1, 2008 18:26:05 GMT -5
YTD: 1-1 (+0,23 units [+10.0% ROI]).
Just one for today:
Malisse over Melzer @ 1.75 (1,20 units) - both men serve quite powerfully but, behind their deliveries, Malisse plays a fairly aggressive game, while Melzer executes a little more precision. The left-handed Austrian has struggled to play the "loose cannon" type players in the past (e.g. defeats against Monfils, Tursunov, Blake, Gonzalez and Dlouhy), and, should this match become tight, as I suspect it might, Melzer's questionable mental toughness will be fully tested (e.g. he went 7-12 in ATP tiebreaks, last season; Malisse 16-13 over 2006-07 seasons). Malisse has a 24-12 record against lefties, since 2000 (12-4 on hard courts), so he shouldn't be too bothered by Melzer hitting the majority of balls to his backhand wing (considered to be the Belgian's stronger shot anyway). My only slight concern is that I found out, shortly after I submitted my bet, that Malisse is still recovering from a tendon injury to his finger/hand which he suffered 6 weeks ago. Given the ease with which he beat Muller, one would hope that his finger will keep holding up. 1 set rule applies to this bet.
Value (100): 1.75 odds x 60% confidence = 105.
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Post by smash on Jan 1, 2008 18:32:20 GMT -5
Was also tempted by Lee and Berrer, but, in the end, stayed away. Lee has a huge history of struggling against the very offensive players (e.g. Gonzalez, Blake and Monfils) and if Calleri plays as well as he did against Robredo, I see him struggling again. Berrer's big serve usually proves tough to break, but the court is playing quite slow (and the balls seem heavy), so I reckon that Johansson's more superior groundstrokes will get him through. Might be a good match to trade though, given that Berrer looks to be starting at 3.00+ odds.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 1, 2008 18:40:09 GMT -5
Berrer over Johansson 3.15 Tipsarevic over Ljubicic 3.55
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Post by jimnik on Jan 2, 2008 6:29:23 GMT -5
The match-up I was most interested in last night was:
Lee 2.32-1.76 Calleri. No bet. When you look at their previous meetings, Lee got the better of him at Wimby (expected) but also kept it very close on the clay in Hamburg. But Calleri has had a history of underperforming at big events so they probably don't mean much when it comes to R2 of Doha. Calleri is very hit and miss and he can always choke in tight situations but playing out on Court 1 in a tournament like this I don't expect it to be a problem. If he keeps up the form he had against Robredo he should overpower Lee. And, as already mentioned, Lee tends to do better against defensive than aggressive opponents.
The odds have changed a little overnight to:
Lee 2.20-1.83 Calleri. Still no bet. If the odds come closer to 50-50, I might be tempted to back Calleri.
GL to the rest of you.
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Post by jimnik on Jan 2, 2008 6:41:54 GMT -5
Actually another one:
Tipsarevic 4.00- 1.33 Ljubicic Tipsy's odds have lengthened overnight and I might be tempted to go for this one. Ljubicic seemed to be more aggressive against Koubek than he was most of last year but the confidence is not there yet. You would think Tipsarevic could cause problems but he struggled past Ventura yesterday and he needs to be showing more progress.
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Post by smash on Jan 2, 2008 14:15:21 GMT -5
Malisse over Melzer @ 1.75 (1,20 units) Won! Got a little worried when I saw that all previous action was going more or less as I'd expected...usually this is bad news! YTD: 2-1 (+1,08 units [+31.3% ROI]). I really would like to get out of my Serbia OUTRIGHT bet, but I don't fancy laying the current 5.10 odds. USA look set to win, so it would make sense to hit them with a replica 1,00 unit bet (at their current 2.02 odds, I'd be leaving with pocket money)...but no sense jumping into this without giving it a little thought. After all, I may end up losing 2,00 units on that event if a different nation wins.
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Post by nikolaysconscience on Jan 2, 2008 20:08:10 GMT -5
Good to see that some decent analaysis is being posted.
Have taken it relatively easy so far, and fortunately have taken advantage of some nice IR opportunities. Murray at above evens anyone......
Taken some value on offer on the outrights, backing Wawrinka at 14/1 to win Doha (I plan to lay off if he reaches the final), unfortunately Boylesports cut his price into 9s shortly after I got on. Like his chances against Calleri tommorow and give him a good shot against Ljubicic. Still available at 12s with a few, but I guess the real value is gone.
Best of luck with your bets.
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Post by nikolaysconscience on Jan 2, 2008 20:10:42 GMT -5
Im slightly miffed that this match won't be on t.v. either, as it takes place at the same time of Ljubicic vs Kohly, but I think it will be a cracker.
Also, tipped Zverev to have a decent year before Xmas and I see no reason why he can't see of Spadea.
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Post by nikolaysconscience on Jan 3, 2008 10:00:46 GMT -5
Stanislas is looking good.
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Post by smash on Jan 3, 2008 14:58:57 GMT -5
The match-up I was most interested in last night was: Lee 2.32-1.76 Calleri. No bet. When you look at their previous meetings, Lee got the better of him at Wimby (expected) but also kept it very close on the clay in Hamburg. But Calleri has had a history of underperforming at big events so they probably don't mean much when it comes to R2 of Doha. Calleri is very hit and miss and he can always choke in tight situations but playing out on Court 1 in a tournament like this I don't expect it to be a problem. If he keeps up the form he had against Robredo he should overpower Lee. And, as already mentioned, Lee tends to do better against defensive than aggressive opponents. The odds have changed a little overnight to: Lee 2.20-1.83 Calleri. Still no bet. If the odds come closer to 50-50, I might be tempted to back Calleri. GL to the rest of you. Very good points mate, and you were right. I like the way you approach the matches.
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Post by smash on Jan 3, 2008 15:09:17 GMT -5
Taken some value on offer on the outrights, backing Wawrinka at 14/1 to win Doha (I plan to lay off if he reaches the final), unfortunately Boylesports cut his price into 9s shortly after I got on. Like his chances against Calleri tommorow and give him a good shot against Ljubicic. Still available at 12s with a few, but I guess the real value is gone. Best of luck with your bets. Interesting stuff nikolay. Seen very little coverage this week, and sadly I haven't seen Stan yet, but, given the scorelines and stats, he looks to be doing quite well, as you say. It looks like he has a reasonable shot at the final...I'd consider him the more superior baseline player to Ljubicic, so much depends on how well he can return the Croat's serves. Don't think he'd win the title, though. Both Davydenko and Murray are bad matches for his style, although Stan would probably have a better shot against Muzza, given that the latter is often guilty of playing too passively, leaving himself open to all kinds of trouble. I saw a couple of games of Davydenko's match today, and I was impressed, in particular, with his serve...serving bigger imo, and he was hitting a good percentage. Many were quick to write him off at the end of last year, but I don't think he has any plans to leave the top 10 just yet.
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Post by nikolaysconscience on Jan 3, 2008 16:19:12 GMT -5
Yep, was slightly concerned with Davy at the start of the week, and was fearful that his serve had completely gone. Still giving up some opportunities but has played some really good stuff this week, and I'm hoping the market will remain negative on him against Murray.
As always I find it difficult to read Murray's level of play, and although one can't look past the bagels etc that he's given out in the last few matches, I can't help but feel that if he is as passive as he has been at times during his last few matches, that Davy will at least take a set. It will be very interesting viewing at the least.
Took 14/1 on Wawrinka. A significant amount of it each way.
The price was just wrong, effectively I got odds of 4.7 on him to reach the final.
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Post by nikolaysconscience on Jan 3, 2008 16:28:11 GMT -5
My staking rules have gone out of the window to a degree on this one, and this really is a considerable investmant for me.
I think Wawa has a very decent chance of beating Ljubicic tommorow, although I have been relatively impressed with the Croat who has been solid off the ground and has improved his footwork.
Obviously much depends on the Ljubicic first delivery, as Wawa is a very good returner and will be all over the Ljub second serve. I think Ljubicic backers are reliant on his remaining solid on serve and Wawa suffering a lapse in concentration. Although he has been prone to this in the past I'm hopeful that he's turned a corner.
Off the ground I think Wawa has more power and is also more comfortable than Ljubicic in grinding out points in longer rallys.
I'm confident that Wawa will get a fair few opportunities on the Ljubicic serve. Incidentally, Ljub was less effective with his first serve today.
Also glad to see Ljub taken to three sets.
Come on Wawa it's in your hands.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 3, 2008 16:39:23 GMT -5
Wawrinka V Ljubicic
I was pretty much impressed with Ljubo's groundies, much more solid and powerful than they were back in 07. Stan likes to hit the ball even harder back so this will be a hit or miss match on either side with Stan being the more patient as well as the more intelligent player of the two. The previous meetings don't say much as Stan has improved his game a lot, the only thing that he lacks is touch, once he learns how to stay in rallies with just pushing the ball back and not going for the incredible winner he'll be hard to beat. The surface plays quite slow, so that should favour the real swiss number one!
Wawrinka @2.3ish
BOL
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Post by sLOw on Jan 3, 2008 16:40:13 GMT -5
Waiting for this one to come in and then will get on Malisse!
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