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Post by mrintensity on Jan 27, 2008 19:24:04 GMT -5
Anyone still post here?  CUEVAS @ 1.57 Coral. Not going to say much about Coria, we all know his situation and problems, and none of us really know what kind of shape he’s in here. More interested in who is opposing him, and if they can beat a half-decent Coria. Cuevas is pretty decent, currently ranked at 114 compared to his high of 113. That improved from 230 at the start of 2007 so he’s certainly on the up. He finished last year strong winning a decent Challenger in Lima. That was his third challenger title of the year. He seems like a solid clay courter who should be OK at this level. Only time I’ve seen him play is against Murray at the US Open where he did well to qualify, and he had a decent game but looked inexperienced on hard courts. Obviously this depends on Corias fitness/serve, but he isn’t likely to be 100% so is worth opposing. Also Coral is a one ball bookie, so hit it here as there is a decent chance of Coria retiring. ROITMAN @ 2.87 Paddy. This is an interesting match, and I think Roitman is worth a shot at a decent price. H2H is 2-1 to Massu, all last year, all of clay with Roitman winning the last meeting. But it’s the first that draws my attention, as it was in the quarters of this tournament – Roitman was battering Massu, up 6-0 and I think 5-3 before he got injured and retired after losing the set on tiebreak. Nice little revenge spot here then. I thought Roitman improved quite a bit last year and has a good chance of taking out Massu who was awful in the second half of last year. Couple of concerns are that Massu was reasonable down under and has reached the final here for the past 2 years but I still think he is opposable. Take better prices if you can. Got to put these up now as I won't be around before they start. |
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Post by nikolaysconscience on Jan 28, 2008 0:03:11 GMT -5
Back to the real suff ;D
Agree that Roitman's price looks decent, but was relatively impressed by Massua in recent weeks and just get the sense that he should be good enough.
The only bet I have had as yet is Monaco on the outrights at 4/1.
The way I see it the draw is made for him, and he should reach the final with relative ease, Chela can always threaten, but his early season form has been dire - and he might be one worth opposing against Fognini (his body language has given away alot in recent times and so I might get involved IR).
Think I'll be mainly watching this one as well as trading it a bit as well, too many 'untrustworthy' players to be making too many sizeable investments at this stage.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 28, 2008 7:15:19 GMT -5
YTD: 8-9-2 (+6,86 units)
Acasuso V LUCZAK @3.20 (1,50 units)
RIDICULOUS odds here, Luczak is a good player and Acasuso has shown us in the last few months that he is a grade A mug. Acasuso's day on the dirt are over, he is way too slow and is going for broke way too much to hurt the patient claycourter Luczak.
BOL
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 29, 2008 5:57:10 GMT -5
2-0 yesterday, hope to keep rolling with these....
FOGNINI @ 2.89 Pinnacle. Chela looks worth opposing at this sort of price. He has started this year really poorly, wasn't impressive in Hopman Cup then losses to Mayer and Garcia-Lopez and only a single win over King-Turner in which he needed 3 sets. He also has a stinking record here, 0-3, and has never been close to taking a set against 3 guys he found have been favoured to beat (Portas, Vicente, Sanchez). Fognini is a player I like, I think he can do some decent stuff on the clay this year. He lost in Australia to Russell in 5 sets but I don't think that's too bad considering his experience on hard courts (and I imagine his experience in that part of the world). He ended last year pretty well playing challengers in South America beating the likes of Vassallo-Arguello, Martin, Cuevas and taking Roitman to a final set breaker. I definately think he's worth a shot here.
MARRERO @ 1.83 Will Hill. Think this qualifier is worth a shot. I don't know much about him but just looking at recent form. He qualified for the challenger in La Serena a couple of weeks ago and got all the way to the final, beating N Lapentti and todays opponent Garcia on the way. He's also qualified for this event, beating Ramirez-Hidalgo in the last qualifying round. Garcia is a pretty poor 1-5 in the main draw of his home event, and bar matches against Gonzo and Rios you'd think he'd have a chance with the rest. Garcia struggled to get wins at the back end of last year and I think his poor record here will continue.
BERLOCQ @ 1.42 Pinnacle. I watched Berlocq a few times last year, and he's a player I like on the red stuff. He's got a very nice forehand and is very solid. He pushed Monaco for a couple of sets in Aus and finished last year reaching the final in Sao Paulo. He reached the quarters here last year and has a 1-0 H2H from 2005 against Devilder. Devilder failed in qualifying for Sydney and the Aus Open and finished last year OK, winning a challenger in Brazil in October but struggling a bit after that. Berlocq is a class above and should be able to come through comfortably.
HORNA @ 2.37 Will Hill. Going for Horna here, the main reason is that he won the title here year year, and I like guys in that situation. H2H is 6-2 to Calleri with the last one being 4 sets to Calleri in the Aus Open a couple of weeks ago. But, on clay it's 3-2 to Calleri with the first being a retirement early and the last two going to Horna. They've all been pretty close and I don't see Horna going down easily. Calleri has shown some good form on hard courts in the past 6 months but hasn't played on clay since Sopot last July and that's a bit of a concern I feel as Horna has been pounding the dirt regularly. This this is a very close match, and I fancy Horna to come through trying to defend his title.
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goe
New Member
Posts: 7
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Post by goe on Jan 30, 2008 4:58:16 GMT -5
Excellent shots Mr. I., keep it rolling. What do you say about Pujol vs. Brzezicki? I think the Spaniard he has the upper hand and should win. He's on fire coming from qualies and beating another clay specialist in he first round, Pashanski.
Pujol - 1.82@Pinnacle seems value to me, so I go for it.
Edit: Odds started to drop, 1.77 best value now on Betfair.
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 30, 2008 7:36:06 GMT -5
Agree mate. Let's try to keep this run going.....
GRANNOLLERS-PUYOL @ 1.84 Pinnacle. Puyol looks to have made some sustained improvement last year which is perfectly reasonable as he is just 21. After trying to qualify for the US Open, he went 22-8 in clay court challengers. He started this year well too, qualifying for the Aussie Open beating Galvani and Kunitsyn on the way which I think is good considering his hard court experience. He also qualified for this event comfortably and beat Pashanksi in the first round which is a decent result. Confidence and form look pretty good and I think that makes him a decent favourite for this one. Brzezicki did very well last year reaching the 3rd round of the French, but looking at his challenger results I just see Puyol as being slightly better. He got a good win over Hernandez in the first round but I still prefer Puyol as he came through the qualifiers and has more potential.
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 30, 2008 15:33:54 GMT -5
Crap from Puyol  CUEVAS +4.5 games @ 1.84 Pinnacle. I've been dithering over this play all day, and if it wins I'll kick myslef so have to play it. It's tough to read Cuevas' performance in the first round, as can't be sure about Coria, but if Coria was playing well enough to not get hammered, I think it's a decent result to come through. I mentioned Cuevas' good form at the end of last year and that still stands. Verdasco is making his first trip to South America for a few years because of a Davis Cup tie in Peru. So he'll be motivated to get in some practice and win some matches. He beat local wildcard (noboady!) Podlipnik-Castillo 6-4 6-3 which probably should have been much easier given the difference in class. That says to me he isn't playing too well and this will be a much tougher test. I fancy Cuevas to keep this close, and he may even pull off the win, so taking this +4.5 games as a pretty safe bet. |
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 31, 2008 6:54:55 GMT -5
Cuevas got the job done nicely. Favs look good today....
FOGNINI -3.5 @ 1.82 Pinnacle. Also think Fognini straight up is a good play but I've decdided to take it with the cap from Pinnacle. Backed both these fellas in the first round so happy to see them meet in the second round  . Marrero appeared quite lucky against Garcia being down a set and Garcia serving for the match in the second. Looks like Garcia choked then Marrero was able to come through a tense third set. I'm now looking at his run in La Sarena and coming through qualifying here and thinking that's a lot of tennis for a guy like him. His last 3 matches have been tough 3 setters and look for a let down here against a quality opponent. Fognini took care of Chela comfortably and he's several classes above Marrero and should come through without problems. ROITMAN @ 1.8 Betfair. This looks generous for Roitman who I consider to be a clear favourite. H2H is 2-0 to Ventura but as I've mentioned before Roitman really improved in the second half of last year and I expect him to get it done here. Roitman should have gone further than the quarters here last year but for injury and got his revenge in the first round against Massu in 3 tough sets. Ventura beat Gaudio easily but that doesn't mean anything these days. I just have Roitman as the better player here and fully expect him to come through. HORNA @ 1.6 Betfair. Horna is here to defend his title, and after taking care of Calleri comfortably I can't see him messing up today. H2H is 1-0 to Horna winning in straight sets in Bastad last year which is pretty quick clay conditions similar to those here. Berlocq came through against Devilder in the last round but this will be a big step up. Horna has the better serve and I just like him this week so making the play. |
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Post by sLOw on Jan 31, 2008 17:16:49 GMT -5
Very nice picking mate!
I'm toying with livebetting at the moment, discovering some stupid odds inplay at bwin, gotta try this! Decent week so far
YTD: 8-10-2 (+5,36 units)
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Post by mrintensity on Feb 1, 2008 6:50:45 GMT -5
I'm not risking any of my money with bwin - very dodgy! It had been a great week, but losing two final set breakers yesterday hurt a little. Need a winner....
Only one for me today I think
FOGNINI @ 2.05 Will Hill. Interesting match up here, and I'm willing to take Fognini as a dog. He struggled yesterday, was 5-1 up in the first set and stumped taking it 6-4 then lost a tiebreak second set but managed to come through in the end. As I said yesterday I like him and I'm willing to follow him here. Ventura I feel was a bit lucky yesterday, Roitman was cruising till the middle of the second set when he decided to stop winning service game. Ventura nearly blew a big lead in the final set and ended up taking it on a tiebreak. He's playing well lately, but I still don't rate him, and think Fognini has more to offer. H2H is 1-0 to Ventura a crushing 6-0 6-2 but Fognini had come off a tough final tie break win the day before so maybe he was tired. Expect a much better effort from him today and I make him a slight fav.
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. Marrero appeared quite lucky against Garcia being down a set and Garcia serving for the match in the second. Looks like Garcia choked then Marrero was able to come through a tense third set. I'm now looking at his run in La Sarena and coming through qualifying here and thinking that's a lot of tennis for a guy like him. His last 3 matches have been tough 3 setters and look for a let down here against a quality opponent. Fognini took care of Chela comfortably and he's several classes above Marrero and should come through without problems.