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Post by smash on Nov 29, 2007 10:25:10 GMT -5
I guess that this site is really geared towards a big 2008 start, but the tennis isn't quite over for the year! ;D Currently the odds, on Betfair, are: USA 1.32 Russia 4.00 I'd say that these odds are fairly accurate. As long as Mike Bryan is fit, the doubles is a foregone conclusion. A-Rod should be favoured to take 2 points from his singles rubbers (thereby giving USA the necessary 3 points for victory). The biggest threat to USA is likely to come from Tursunov, who, in my opinion, has the firepower to live with/beat Blake, and threaten A-Rod. However, as concerns the latter match-up, I feel that Tursunov would have a better shot against A-Rod on a slower surface (e.g. clay), which would take some of the sting out of A-Rod's serve and force the pair of them to battle out more points in longer rallies (therefore giving A-Rod less of an advantage). A problem I see for Russia is the draw for the weekend. If I were Tarpischev, I'd be hoping to give Tursunov a shot at Blake on the Friday (to give the visitors a shot at 1-1), but that could only happen if Tursunov were named as Russia's #1 singles player. Given that he is 4th ranked out of the 4 Russian squadies, I'd guess that this strategy would therefore be impossible to implement. As a result, I'd be predicting USA to win 3-0 or 3-1.  edit - Lo, for some reason Andy's surname comes out as "Rodthingy"  !!! It doesn't like "D.I.C.K." in any part of a word! Some of the settings need to be altered haha! |
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Post by mrintensity on Nov 29, 2007 18:59:27 GMT -5
A-Rod v Tursunov
Blake v Youzhny
For the 1st day. To be honest, that looks OK for Russia, they have a shot at both games.
Can't see any prices yet, but imagine Roddick will be short. 1.35 best perhaps? I think that's a match to leave until in-running, if Tursunov is serving well could well be a big upset to start with.
Blake v Youzhny is a tough one to price up. I'm looking at it and thinking of Youzhny. I think 1.66ish for Blake and I'd be looking to side with the Russian.
Proper write-ups if I see any good prices tomorrow.
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Post by smash on Nov 30, 2007 4:56:39 GMT -5
Yep, few surprises with that draw. Davydenko has been known to play DC doubles, but I wouldn't be surprised if Tursunov or Youzhny line up alongside Andreev (the favourite being Tursunov), tomorrow. Prices (from Gamebookers): 1.20 A-Rod vs Tursunov 4.10
1.60 Blake vs Youzhny 2.20Tursunov undoubtedly has the tools to keep the match close, but, usually, the problem with him is that his mind goes walk-about every-so-often, while A-Rod is fairly solid. As you say, Mr. I, the match could be a good trade. Tursunov to steal the 1st set @ 3.25 (Gamebookers) MIGHT be worth examining given that, should he serve at 60%+ 1st serves (as he has been known to do), A-Rod would have a hard job breaking him. Both have positive tiebreak records for the last 12 months, but I guess that A-Rod's 35-12 record deserves some respect! Youzhny is asking to be backed as an underdog, given Blake's awful tendencies on the biggest stages!  A 5-0 record, by my calculations, over other big-hitting "loose cannons" this year (e.g. Monfils, Haase, Gabashvili, Gulbis and Gonzalez) seems to illustrate that his all-round strength is capable of riding the storm, and winning this type of match-up. Blake's 12-8 DC singles record looks impressive, but, if you look beneath the surface, you will find that he is 4-7 in live rubbers (3-1 at home; 1-6 away), and can barely win a 5th set to save his life (1-10 record?). Youzhny (5-4 in live singles [won last 3]; 2-3 away) is also known to tighten up in these occasions, but, for the reasons stated, I'd be willing to back him at 2.20+. Blake/Youzhny follows A-Rod/Tursunov (approx. 00:00 CET) so I'll hold off for a few hours, and make my final decision then. Hopefully Betfair will offer some odds! EDIT - Unibet are currently quoting Youzhny @ 2.37...nice! |
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Post by mrintensity on Nov 30, 2007 6:36:57 GMT -5
YOUZHNY v Blake @ 2.4 Expekt 2.5pts
Very nice price on what I consider to be a 50/50 match. H2H is 1-0 to Youzhny in the semis of the Davis Cup last yearbut that was in Russia on clay so decent advantage for Youzhny that time. Since then, Youzhny has had an excellent 2007. He peaked at 10 in the world in August actually at a time where he was starting to slump - he had a very average run from Cincinatti to Madrid. After that he seemed to find his form again in St Petersburg and Paris, gaining good wins over Gonzalez and Haas and running Murray extremely close. I see him coming into this match in good form and he has a good chance on this surface.
Blake has had a pretty average year after what he achieved in 2006. He looked to be finding his form as usual in the US hardcourt swing reaching the final of Cincinatti, winning New Haven and 4th round of the US Open. But after losing that final set tie-break to Haas he has been pretty poor. He's lost to T Johansson twice, Ancic, Karlovic and Gasquet and has struggled against guys he should have put away easily (Bkorkman, Mahut). He also really struggles when going to a 5th set - the one I remember is against Mirnyi at Wimbledon 06 where he was pathetic.
Technically, I like the way this match up works for Youzhny. e should be able to control most of the backhand to backhand exchanges and it will probably be up to Blake to go for the winner in these which isn't in Blakes favour. On the forehand, Blake is more explosive and should have a decent advantage, it will be up to Youzhny to keep to Blakes backhand until he can really rip a forehand. On serve, slight edge to Blake, but both guys can attack a second serve, and I think that puts more pressure on Blake as Youzhny has the better defensive skills.
Who has more pressure in this game? Blake at home could struggle, especially if he gets behind early. However, you'd expect USA to be 1-0 after Roddick and the crowd to be "pumped" so a lot of pressure on Youzhny. He has shown a lot of nerves before and that is a concern, but Tarpischev has come out and named him No. 1 for Russia which I think will be a big boost for him and he should come into this will a lot of confidence.
Overall, expect a close match, with Blake having a better tie break record this year, but Youzhny having the edge if it goes to 5.
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Post by mrintensity on Nov 30, 2007 11:18:52 GMT -5
TURSUNOV +5.5 games v A-Rod @ 1.83 William Hill 3.25ptsI don't think Tursunov can get over the line in this one, but I think he can keep it close. H2H is very interesting, reading 2-1 to Rodthingy. First meeting was in Indy in 2005 when Tursunov was outside the top 100 and it was incredibly close 8-6 7-9 7-5 to Rodthingy in the three tie breaks!! Then they met in the Davis Cup semi last year on clay in Russia where Tursunov came through an epic 17-15 in the fifth set. This year they met at Queens, Rodthingy coming through 6-4 7-5 and I remember watching that, and Tursunov matched Rodthingy apart from two ridiculously bad service games. That is the concern here, as mentally Tursunov can go AWOL at times, but when he's on I really don't see Rodthingy breaking him. Rodthingy has been struggling with injury in the past few months, and it's pretty hard to say how fit and importantly match fit he is at the moment. In Shanghai he was OK, but it could easily be argued the guys he beat (Davydenko and Gonzalez) were in bad situations when facing him. I don't think his expectations were high at all in Shanghai - seeing it as a stepping stone to this final. Rodthingy is an imposing 13-2 in live rubbers in the USA, but a lot of those were weak opponents and/or big surface advantages for him. i think he's going to perform well today, but will still struggle to break the Tursunov serve and may have to take the tie breaks. Tursunov is interesting, looking at his year has been very up and down - but I think he's done well in the second part of the year after struggling with wrist problems (and clay problems ). During the indoor season he's played OK, but no better, and that is a slight concern. However, I'm thinking beyond that, I think he's a guy for the big occasion and a guy for the Davis Cup. He's an excellent 3-0 in live singles rubbers with wins over Sluiter, Rodthingy on clay, and Gasquet indoors in France. I also like the "memories" of the meeting in last years Semi against Roddthingy, as that was really awesome. I expect him to step up today, and if he serves well Rodthingy will have major problems breaking him. My prediction would be Rodthingy in 4 sets, 2 of them tiebreaks.
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Post by smash on Nov 30, 2007 12:16:37 GMT -5
2007 YTD: 177/172/9 (+26.61 units [+12.3% ROI]).
Pending:
USA OUTRIGHT @ 5.10 (0,40 units)
Russia OUTRIGHT @ 3.55 (0,60 units).
I see USA winning 3-0 or 3-1, so, with that in mind, I have hedged my potential OUTRIGHT profit with a 0,892 unit bet on USA @ 1.28 (Willhill). So, my potential profit for USA will now be approx. 1,29 units, while my potential profit for Russia falls to approx. 0,24 units, after commission has been deducted.
Youzhny over Blake @ 2.37 [Unibet] (0,75 units) - (1) MATCH-UP - Youzhny has dealt quite well with the "reckless," big-hitting "loose cannon" players, this season (5-0 against them - see above). His controlled aggression is capable of hurting such a player - good percentage serving, consistently deep balls, and an ability to pull his opponent out wide, encouraging them to go for low-percentage big winners from such a position. Combined, all three serve to pile the pressure on the opponent, and Moya and Gasquet (the latter is guilty of hitting too short, at times) are examples of players who have also successfully implemented this gameplan against the American, this season. (2) MENTAL and FORM - Blake is very much a confidence player, so these two go hand in hand. When confident, he is capable of overpowering most players (e.g. January, US summer hardcourts), but, if the doubts start to creep in, his game can completely fall apart (e.g. Febuary-May; post-US Open). The latter is particularly evident in the matches which truly matter (1-10 5th set record) - e.g. Grand Slams and Davis Cup (4-7 in live singles for the latter). Sure, Blake should feel a little more at ease in thinking that A-Rod and the Bryans should seal the Davis Cup win...but, make no mistake that this is the BIGGEST match of Blake's life, and the Americans will be expecting him to step up to the plate. Of course, there is also a huge amount of pressure on Youzhny, but the Russian's solid DC form, this season (3-0 in live singles rubbers; 5-4 overall), doesn't make him a man to take lightly, especially if he can continue the good form he displayed in the last two weeks of the regular season.
Good luck mrintensity!
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flipmode
Junior Member
WTA-SPECIALIST
Posts: 58
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Post by flipmode on Nov 30, 2007 12:43:16 GMT -5
great contributions guys. Lets just hope youzhny can level this @ 1-1 by the end of todays play (assuming A-Rod...) dont want the contest over by tommorrow nite do we  would set up nicely with usa 2-1 goin' into the final day. |
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Post by mrintensity on Nov 30, 2007 12:45:45 GMT -5
great contributions guys. Lets just hope youzhny can level this @ 1-1 by the end of todays play (assuming A-Rod...) dont want the contest over by tommorrow nite do we would set up nicely with usa 2-1 goin' into the final day. Yeah definatey want this to go to Sunday - could get a decent price on Youzhny against A-Rod ;D |
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Post by sLOw on Nov 30, 2007 12:55:57 GMT -5
I won't bet on any match this weekend but I'll try to check if I can get my new system working.
Mikhail Youzhny - James Blake
At first sight I would take Misha, but lets get into the system:
H2H = 1-0 Youzhny / 100%
Indoor hard record* 12-8 / 60%
odds for a Youzhny win 2.25 / 44%
44% x 2 = 88%
100% + 60% = 160%
difference: 72%
according to my system my bet would be like this:
Mikhail Youzhny to beat James Blake - 2.25
stake: 3 units to win 3.75 units
Good luck!
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Post by sLOw on Nov 30, 2007 13:03:12 GMT -5
Be careful with betting on the doubles match!
It isn't clear if Mike (or was it Bob?) is going to play without any pain.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Russia leading 2-1 after tomorrow.
Misha the Davis Cup hero is going to win Russia the tie with a win over Mr. Serve.
He could become one of the first players to win the tie for his country in 2 occasions, 2002 against PHM if I remember correctly.
I just decided that I AM GOING TO MAKE MISHA over Blake an official play, so watch out:-)
BOL
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Post by sLOw on Dec 1, 2007 8:59:54 GMT -5
The whole world was on Misha, just had to lose this one!
-3 units
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Post by mrintensity on Dec 1, 2007 15:21:51 GMT -5
Yeah a bad day. Tursunov was horrendous, lost count of how many times he went 0-40 on his serve. Youzhny was pretty close, but Blake was quite a bit better than I expected and deserved the win. Probably no more action this week (unless Russia can pull a huge shock in the doubles) so -5.75pts for the week.
Hurry up next year! ;D
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Post by smash on Dec 1, 2007 16:02:01 GMT -5
Youzhny over Blake @ 2.37 [Unibet] (0,75 units) - Not all doom and gloom...Bryans should seal USA's win tonight. ;D |
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flipmode
Junior Member
WTA-SPECIALIST
Posts: 58
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Post by flipmode on Dec 2, 2007 8:04:31 GMT -5
Terrible final now its just Nba and premiership soccer for me until dec 31 |
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Post by sLOw on Dec 2, 2007 8:56:25 GMT -5
flip, NFL is tasty as well;)
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!!! It doesn't like "D.I.C.K." in any part of a word! Some of the settings need to be altered haha! 
A 5-0 record, by my calculations, over other big-hitting "loose cannons" this year (e.g. Monfils, Haase, Gabashvili, Gulbis and Gonzalez) seems to illustrate that his all-round strength is capable of riding the storm, and winning this type of match-up. Blake's 12-8 DC singles record looks impressive, but, if you look beneath the surface, you will find that he is 4-7 in live rubbers (3-1 at home; 1-6 away), and can barely win a 5th set to save his life (1-10 record?). Youzhny (5-4 in live singles [won last 3]; 2-3 away) is also known to tighten up in these occasions, but, for the reasons stated, I'd be willing to back him at 2.20+. 
