Post by smash on Nov 25, 2007 12:41:32 GMT -5
I'll start the ball rolling. ;D
The following are 5 2008 season bets that I have already snapped up, and a couple more may follow in the next 5 weeks. A 2,00 unit stake is the maximum, by the way.
Andy Murray - top 10 RACE finish @ 1.80 [VC] (0,75 units) - there is little doubt that Murray belongs in the top 5...he has one of the best service returns in the game, and his varied style should land him some strong results on all surfaces. However, I've only gone small on this as: (a) Murray is injury-prone; (b) Murray will be coachless for a little while / working with a new team...might struggle for consistency in the early part of 2008.
Djokovic - top 5 RACE finish @ 1.80 [VC] (1,80 units) - a stunning 2007 for Djokovic, and, provided he stays healthy, I see little changing for him in 2008. The very solid baseliners (e.g. Nalbandian, Ferrer etc) are most likely to hurt him, but they will have a hard job posting more consistently excellent results than him (particularly off the clay). I'd be expecting another top 3 finish.
Federer - to finish RACE #1 @ 1.65 [VC] (2,00 units) - Federer may have lost more times than expected, in 2007, but he still reigned supreme in the biggest events. I don't really expect this to change in 2008, and, while Nadal, Djokovic and Nalbandian are his nearest serious rivals, I'm really not convinced that they have the consistency (in results) necessary to eclipse him by the year-end. Federer is very sensible with his scheduling, thereby minimising the chances of injury lay-off...while Nadal continues to run himself into the ground, and Djokovic will have used up his "injury time out" quota by mid-February.
Wawrinka to finish higher than Del Potro in RACE @ 1.80 [VC] (1,50 units) - for starters, Stan lost the first half of the 2007 season thanks to a nasty knee injury, and a slow recovery to match fitness. He is a little erratic (particularly on serve), but he possesses a nice baseline game and likes to grind down opponents in long rallies - a style that is quite effective on most surfaces, these days. Del Potro has a fair bit of potential, himself, but his two main weaknesses, for me, are: (1) mental; (2) movement (he is 6'5) - and both are likely to hinder him on the clay, for instance. Many of the top players possess strong baseline games, making them a poor match for the Argentine as he isn't so quick to change direction, and his baseline game still isn't fully developed yet. Essentially, I see a clear edge for Wawrinka, who is more likely to reach a few SF and finals, while Del Potro may struggle to reach the latter stages of many events. My prediction model gives a 40-50 RACE points advantage to the Swiss.
ITALIAN #1 (RACE) - NOT Starace, Volandri or Seppi @ 7.00 [VC] (0,40 units) - this is a VERY interesting bet, in my opinion. I don't consider ANY of the top 3 Italians to be particularly strong players...none of them should really be challenging for the big points in the big events, meaning that they are, essentially, vying for rankings places from 40 downwards. This makes it somewhat easier for a new kid to make an impression...and Bolelli, for instance, could be that man. He doesn't stand up so well to the most powerful players (e.g. Berdych) but he possesses a nice baseline game and a reasonable serve...and can only really get better, in my opinion. Anyway, I think there is a good chance that ALL Italians jostle between ATP and challenger events...so the RACE battle could become quite close, although one of Starace, Volandri or Seppi may finish Italian #1 on the ENTRY ranking (irrelevant for this bet) courtesy of some stronger challenger results. Worth a go, in my opinion, with small stakes.
The following are 5 2008 season bets that I have already snapped up, and a couple more may follow in the next 5 weeks. A 2,00 unit stake is the maximum, by the way.
Andy Murray - top 10 RACE finish @ 1.80 [VC] (0,75 units) - there is little doubt that Murray belongs in the top 5...he has one of the best service returns in the game, and his varied style should land him some strong results on all surfaces. However, I've only gone small on this as: (a) Murray is injury-prone; (b) Murray will be coachless for a little while / working with a new team...might struggle for consistency in the early part of 2008.
Djokovic - top 5 RACE finish @ 1.80 [VC] (1,80 units) - a stunning 2007 for Djokovic, and, provided he stays healthy, I see little changing for him in 2008. The very solid baseliners (e.g. Nalbandian, Ferrer etc) are most likely to hurt him, but they will have a hard job posting more consistently excellent results than him (particularly off the clay). I'd be expecting another top 3 finish.
Federer - to finish RACE #1 @ 1.65 [VC] (2,00 units) - Federer may have lost more times than expected, in 2007, but he still reigned supreme in the biggest events. I don't really expect this to change in 2008, and, while Nadal, Djokovic and Nalbandian are his nearest serious rivals, I'm really not convinced that they have the consistency (in results) necessary to eclipse him by the year-end. Federer is very sensible with his scheduling, thereby minimising the chances of injury lay-off...while Nadal continues to run himself into the ground, and Djokovic will have used up his "injury time out" quota by mid-February.
Wawrinka to finish higher than Del Potro in RACE @ 1.80 [VC] (1,50 units) - for starters, Stan lost the first half of the 2007 season thanks to a nasty knee injury, and a slow recovery to match fitness. He is a little erratic (particularly on serve), but he possesses a nice baseline game and likes to grind down opponents in long rallies - a style that is quite effective on most surfaces, these days. Del Potro has a fair bit of potential, himself, but his two main weaknesses, for me, are: (1) mental; (2) movement (he is 6'5) - and both are likely to hinder him on the clay, for instance. Many of the top players possess strong baseline games, making them a poor match for the Argentine as he isn't so quick to change direction, and his baseline game still isn't fully developed yet. Essentially, I see a clear edge for Wawrinka, who is more likely to reach a few SF and finals, while Del Potro may struggle to reach the latter stages of many events. My prediction model gives a 40-50 RACE points advantage to the Swiss.
ITALIAN #1 (RACE) - NOT Starace, Volandri or Seppi @ 7.00 [VC] (0,40 units) - this is a VERY interesting bet, in my opinion. I don't consider ANY of the top 3 Italians to be particularly strong players...none of them should really be challenging for the big points in the big events, meaning that they are, essentially, vying for rankings places from 40 downwards. This makes it somewhat easier for a new kid to make an impression...and Bolelli, for instance, could be that man. He doesn't stand up so well to the most powerful players (e.g. Berdych) but he possesses a nice baseline game and a reasonable serve...and can only really get better, in my opinion. Anyway, I think there is a good chance that ALL Italians jostle between ATP and challenger events...so the RACE battle could become quite close, although one of Starace, Volandri or Seppi may finish Italian #1 on the ENTRY ranking (irrelevant for this bet) courtesy of some stronger challenger results. Worth a go, in my opinion, with small stakes.
