Post by sLOw on Nov 24, 2007 8:59:29 GMT -5
Very interesting article!
Source: www.sportstalk24.com/article_sports_Betting_bankroll_management
Bankroll Management - Stop betting too much!
Bankroll Management - Stop betting too much!
Sports Betting Money Management
How to keep yourself in the game
You are betting too much on each game! How can I say that without even knowing you? Because Ive been doing this for a long time and have spent a lot of time understanding money management. 99% of sports bettors are betting too much. Think not? Think again.
A Simple Proposition - Would you take it?
If I offered you a 10% advantage in a game of chance (55% for you vs. 45%) for 500 bets, would you take that bet? Of course you would. Over the long haul (500 bets), the law of large numbers dictates that you would end up very close to 55% winners (275 winners vs. 225 losers). If we were betting $100 per bet, youd be up about $5,000 in the end. Easy money.
Now lets say that I had one constraint. I told you you could start with no more than $500 (your bankroll) and if you ran out of money, you couldn re-load. In essence, I was forcing you to bet 20% of your bankroll on each bet. Would you still take it? Think you could still take me for $5,000?
You had better not! You are virtually guaranteed to go bankrupt in this situation. Over the long haul, you will come close to 55% winners - its a mathematical certainty. But, over the short term, you are guaranteed nothing. Strange streaks will happen. They always do. Over 500 bets, you could easily go 5 or 10 bets in a row (or even more) without winning. You could go 2-18 during a 500 bet session. If I forced you to bet 20% of your bankroll, youd be crazy to do it because I would take your money like taking candy from a baby.
Yet, in sports betting, most bettors routinely do the equivalent of taking this bet! Almost every sports bettor bets too much per game relative to the size of their bankroll. They don think twice about laying half of their entire remaining bankroll on one weeks NFL games. The conclusion is this...
Why The House Wins
Based on my nearly two decades of sports betting experience, I view this as the most valuable secret there is:
THE HOUSE WINS BECAUSE YOU BET TOO MUCH PER GAME.
You run out of money before you have a chance to let the laws of large numbers work for you. They are banking on your lack of discipline. Thats the main reason (not bad picking) that most sports bettors lose and why The House laughs to the bank.
Check out this story as an illustration...
A Tale of Two Sports Bettors
John and Bob each started the season with $1000 - their bankroll. They both decided to play the same games throughout the season but they couldn agree on how much to place on each game. John was more of a risk taker than Bob so John decided to bet about $200 per game (20% of his bankroll). Bob was more conservative and decided to risk about $50 per game (5% of his bankroll). John figured that if he bet more, he could win more. And he was right. In week one, their picks went 4-2. John was up $360 while Bob only won $90. John was very pleased with himself.
Week 2 produced the exact same result. John now had a $1720 bankroll while Bob was up to just $1180. John was very happy. He encouraged Bob to bet more but Bob wasn so sure about that strategy. What if their luck started to turn? John preferred to think positively. Besides, they were 8-4 and they knew what they were doing! The first two weeks had proved that.
But then came weeks 3 through and 4 in which they went 2-4, 1-3. A bad run for sure, but not uncommon during a 16-week season. In fact, losing streaks are inevitable and guaranteed during a season. Bob lost $235 while John gave back $940. John now had a lower bankroll than Bob! John was now down to $780. John felt the losing couldn possibly continue so he stuck with his bet size of $200 per game. The next two weeks they went 2-2 and 1-3.
Guess what? John was now virtually wiped out - down to $280. Bob, meanwhile lost $360 on the terrible four week run but still had $820 left over. One of them was virtually out of money, the other had over 80% of his original bankroll left.
What happened next? Well, John quit. And, the unfortunate four-week run was followed by a great 3-week run where Bob went 10-3 and another 8 weeks of hitting a very respectable 56% on average. Bob ended up the season at over $1300 - an increase of 30% on his initial bankroll.
The morale of this story is obvious but very few sports bettors practice it. Don overextend yourself:
Don bet too much for your bankroll!
It is very tempting to put down a lot on each game, especially when you are winning. It is relatively boring to put down a little. But, you need to work within your bankroll, whatever that is. There will be bad streaks and good streaks in sports betting. It is inevitable if you do it for any extended period of time. Do yourself the favor of allowing yourself to stay in the game. Don miss out on that late-season run of luck because you are out of the game too early.
If your bankroll (amount you have set aside to bet with) is $10,000 and your average bet is more than $300, you are betting too much. If you have $1,000 to bet with and your average bet size is $30, you are betting too much. If your bankroll is $500 and you bet more than $15 per game, you are betting too much.
The silver lining in all of this is that YOU CONTROL THE SINGLE BIGGEST IMPEDIMENT TO LOSING. Let me say that again - regardless of how you pick games or whether someone helps you, you have the ability to erase the single biggest reason you may lose. All you need to do is practice safe money management.
So, how much you should you lay per game?
It depends, of course, on your bankroll (how much you are willing and able to lose over the course of the season). But there is a simple rule that applies regardless of whether you are a ten-dollar per game bettor or a one-thousand-dollar per game bettor: Bet around 2-3% of your bankroll and don ever bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game. There are no locks. Let me repeat that - there is no such thing as a sure thing. Any bet can lose. Losing streaks can and do happen. Even in a season where you hit 60% overall, youll have weeks where you hit 40%. Its an absolute certainty.
Can you make money with this strategy? Absolutely. In fact, its required to make money. Without this strategy, you will consistently lose regardless of how well you pick games. If you hit 54-58% (what you should expect), you will lose a lot of money (and maybe even deplete your entire bakroll) if you are betting more than 5% of your bankroll per game!
If you are winning and on a great roll, your bets can increase and you can win even more. How? You can simply use a percentage of your remaining bankroll. As your bankroll increases, your bet size increases. As your bankroll decreases, your bets decrease. A nice side benefit of this is that, by definition, you can never get wiped out. It is mathematically impossible to lose your entire bankroll if you are always betting a small percentage of it.
The bottom line: Remember, bet 1% - 5% of your bankroll on any given game (more often on the low end of that range). A good rule of thumb is about 3% per game. If you aren as sure on a game, drop it to 1% or 2% and if you feel very good about a game, take it up to 4%. For those once or twice in a season games that you absolutely love, go with 5% but never more.
I rate my picks as 1 to 5 stars and I recommend the following betting based on the star ratings:
1 star: 1% of bankroll
2 star: 2% of bankroll
3 star: 3% of bankroll
4 star: 4% of bankroll
5 star: 5% of bankroll
Bankroll Management - Stop betting too much!
Sports Betting Money Management
How to keep yourself in the game
You are betting too much on each game! How can I say that without even knowing you? Because Ive been doing this for a long time and have spent a lot of time understanding money management. 99% of sports bettors are betting too much. Think not? Think again.
A Simple Proposition - Would you take it?
If I offered you a 10% advantage in a game of chance (55% for you vs. 45%) for 500 bets, would you take that bet? Of course you would. Over the long haul (500 bets), the law of large numbers dictates that you would end up very close to 55% winners (275 winners vs. 225 losers). If we were betting $100 per bet, youd be up about $5,000 in the end. Easy money.
Now lets say that I had one constraint. I told you you could start with no more than $500 (your bankroll) and if you ran out of money, you couldn re-load. In essence, I was forcing you to bet 20% of your bankroll on each bet. Would you still take it? Think you could still take me for $5,000?
You had better not! You are virtually guaranteed to go bankrupt in this situation. Over the long haul, you will come close to 55% winners - its a mathematical certainty. But, over the short term, you are guaranteed nothing. Strange streaks will happen. They always do. Over 500 bets, you could easily go 5 or 10 bets in a row (or even more) without winning. You could go 2-18 during a 500 bet session. If I forced you to bet 20% of your bankroll, youd be crazy to do it because I would take your money like taking candy from a baby.
Yet, in sports betting, most bettors routinely do the equivalent of taking this bet! Almost every sports bettor bets too much per game relative to the size of their bankroll. They don think twice about laying half of their entire remaining bankroll on one weeks NFL games. The conclusion is this...
Why The House Wins
Based on my nearly two decades of sports betting experience, I view this as the most valuable secret there is:
THE HOUSE WINS BECAUSE YOU BET TOO MUCH PER GAME.
You run out of money before you have a chance to let the laws of large numbers work for you. They are banking on your lack of discipline. Thats the main reason (not bad picking) that most sports bettors lose and why The House laughs to the bank.
Check out this story as an illustration...
A Tale of Two Sports Bettors
John and Bob each started the season with $1000 - their bankroll. They both decided to play the same games throughout the season but they couldn agree on how much to place on each game. John was more of a risk taker than Bob so John decided to bet about $200 per game (20% of his bankroll). Bob was more conservative and decided to risk about $50 per game (5% of his bankroll). John figured that if he bet more, he could win more. And he was right. In week one, their picks went 4-2. John was up $360 while Bob only won $90. John was very pleased with himself.
Week 2 produced the exact same result. John now had a $1720 bankroll while Bob was up to just $1180. John was very happy. He encouraged Bob to bet more but Bob wasn so sure about that strategy. What if their luck started to turn? John preferred to think positively. Besides, they were 8-4 and they knew what they were doing! The first two weeks had proved that.
But then came weeks 3 through and 4 in which they went 2-4, 1-3. A bad run for sure, but not uncommon during a 16-week season. In fact, losing streaks are inevitable and guaranteed during a season. Bob lost $235 while John gave back $940. John now had a lower bankroll than Bob! John was now down to $780. John felt the losing couldn possibly continue so he stuck with his bet size of $200 per game. The next two weeks they went 2-2 and 1-3.
Guess what? John was now virtually wiped out - down to $280. Bob, meanwhile lost $360 on the terrible four week run but still had $820 left over. One of them was virtually out of money, the other had over 80% of his original bankroll left.
What happened next? Well, John quit. And, the unfortunate four-week run was followed by a great 3-week run where Bob went 10-3 and another 8 weeks of hitting a very respectable 56% on average. Bob ended up the season at over $1300 - an increase of 30% on his initial bankroll.
The morale of this story is obvious but very few sports bettors practice it. Don overextend yourself:
Don bet too much for your bankroll!
It is very tempting to put down a lot on each game, especially when you are winning. It is relatively boring to put down a little. But, you need to work within your bankroll, whatever that is. There will be bad streaks and good streaks in sports betting. It is inevitable if you do it for any extended period of time. Do yourself the favor of allowing yourself to stay in the game. Don miss out on that late-season run of luck because you are out of the game too early.
If your bankroll (amount you have set aside to bet with) is $10,000 and your average bet is more than $300, you are betting too much. If you have $1,000 to bet with and your average bet size is $30, you are betting too much. If your bankroll is $500 and you bet more than $15 per game, you are betting too much.
The silver lining in all of this is that YOU CONTROL THE SINGLE BIGGEST IMPEDIMENT TO LOSING. Let me say that again - regardless of how you pick games or whether someone helps you, you have the ability to erase the single biggest reason you may lose. All you need to do is practice safe money management.
So, how much you should you lay per game?
It depends, of course, on your bankroll (how much you are willing and able to lose over the course of the season). But there is a simple rule that applies regardless of whether you are a ten-dollar per game bettor or a one-thousand-dollar per game bettor: Bet around 2-3% of your bankroll and don ever bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game. There are no locks. Let me repeat that - there is no such thing as a sure thing. Any bet can lose. Losing streaks can and do happen. Even in a season where you hit 60% overall, youll have weeks where you hit 40%. Its an absolute certainty.
Can you make money with this strategy? Absolutely. In fact, its required to make money. Without this strategy, you will consistently lose regardless of how well you pick games. If you hit 54-58% (what you should expect), you will lose a lot of money (and maybe even deplete your entire bakroll) if you are betting more than 5% of your bankroll per game!
If you are winning and on a great roll, your bets can increase and you can win even more. How? You can simply use a percentage of your remaining bankroll. As your bankroll increases, your bet size increases. As your bankroll decreases, your bets decrease. A nice side benefit of this is that, by definition, you can never get wiped out. It is mathematically impossible to lose your entire bankroll if you are always betting a small percentage of it.
The bottom line: Remember, bet 1% - 5% of your bankroll on any given game (more often on the low end of that range). A good rule of thumb is about 3% per game. If you aren as sure on a game, drop it to 1% or 2% and if you feel very good about a game, take it up to 4%. For those once or twice in a season games that you absolutely love, go with 5% but never more.
I rate my picks as 1 to 5 stars and I recommend the following betting based on the star ratings:
1 star: 1% of bankroll
2 star: 2% of bankroll
3 star: 3% of bankroll
4 star: 4% of bankroll
5 star: 5% of bankroll
Source: www.sportstalk24.com/article_sports_Betting_bankroll_management
