2008 probability strategy

[sLOw]

It's time to present you my strategy for 2008.

I did some research and that formula is the result of it:

(ODDS x 2)<(record on surface the match is played + H2H)

Got it?

I've got an example for you:

(fantasy numbers)

Roland Garros

Roger Federer 1.95
Rafael Nadal 2.00

The idea is to pick a player that you think might win.

In this case I'd take Nadal, now we look into the numbers.

Odds: 2.00 = probability of a Nadal win is 50%

Record on the surface: 80 wins - 20 losses = 80%
H2H against opponent: 2 wins - 2 losses = 50%
...

Now we put the numbers into the formula to see if there is any value; that's what we're looking for!

Odds (2.00/50%) x 2

100%

Rots+H2H [(80-20/80%)+(2-2/50%)]

130%

...

100% < 130% = difference: 30 %

It's time to get out the staking plan:

< 5 % difference - 0.5 units
5.1 % - 7.5 % difference - 1 unit
7.6 % - 15 % difference - 1.5 units
15.1 % - 25 % difference - 2 units
25.1% - 35 % difference - 2.5 units
> 35.1% difference - 3 units

So my bet for this event would be:

Rafael Nadal to beat Roger Federer - 2.00 for 2.5 units

...

What if they haven't played eachother yet?


You need to understand this part of the formula: ODDS x 2

What does the 2 stand for?
There's one part that covers the probability of a Nadal win = 1 time the odds and the 2nd part (x1) is splitted into two pieces of x0.5 each. If there's no H2H available I'll simply multiply the odds with 1.5.


Oh well, I might've just confused you as hell. Shame on me!

I will keep the record in here, this will be my strategy for the 2008 season. It's all about probabilities and value.

I believe that it's the best way to earn money long term.

If you have any questions regarding this system, feel free to ask me anytime!

Happy punting
Lo

[mrintensity]

What sort of resesrch did you do for this? I know quite a bit about probability and statistics so I'm always interested in this sort of stuff.

Do you have any time cut-offs or is it simply all-time on tour record? Similarly, do you include challengers, futures in the records?

How many bets do you expect to have from this? Will it be like several every day or one or two a week?

Thanks

[mrintensity]

Oh, and good luck ;D

[smash]

That is a very interesting strategy Loro, and I look forward to seeing it in action...I've never considered it from this angle before.

For me, my stakes go as high as 2,00 units. I generally like to play with fixed stakes...so underdogs will usually be 0,75 unit stakes, medium-confidence bets will be 1,00-1,30 units...with greater confidence being reflected in 1,50+ units. Speculative bets will usually be reflected with much lower stakes...0,10-0,50 units etc.

mrintensity said:

How many bets do you expect to have from this? Will it be like several every day or one or two a week?

I don't know about Loro, but I played 323 bets this season!

[sLOw]

mrintensity said:

What sort of resesrch did you do for this? I know quite a bit about probability and statistics so I'm always interested in this sort of stuff.

Do you have any time cut-offs or is it simply all-time on tour record? Similarly, do you include challengers, futures in the records?

How many bets do you expect to have from this? Will it be like several every day or one or two a week?

Thanks

Hey Chris,

As I've always focused more on either H2H or the surface the match was played on, I thought I could get an interesting strategy going.

I will use this for the whole season 2008.

This is only based on ATP-level tournaments (of the past 3 years).

As for the number of bets. It depends on the card, as long as I see value through my system I'll be taking it gladly. Limit is 3 bets a day as we don't want to get greedy.

I do expect around 400 bets (special-, season plays not included.)

[sLOw]

My problem has always been that I didn't have the discipline and patience when using a system.

I will now try to complete one year, I know that there will be difficult situations especially at the beginning. We all know how shitty it is when you're in a slump and can't pick a winning bet.

I want to add another 75% to my bank by the end of 2008, 175unit bank is my target!

[sLOw]

Lets get the ball rolling.

BET 1:

Mikhail Youzhny over James Blake - 2.25

Analysis:

Misha leads the H2H 1-0 with a win in last years Davis Cup tie between the two nations. The match was played on clay and Misha came through in 4 sets.

First note: H2H 1-0 / 100%

Now lets get into the surface debate. The match is played on indoor hard, Misha holds a record of 12-8 in the past 3 years.

Second note: ros* 12-8 / 60%

The odds are pretty generous in my opinion, too generous to pass. 2.25 stands for 44% of the time Misha would win the match.

Third note: odds 2.25 / 44%


Formula

44% x 2 = 88%
100% + 60% = 160%

Difference: 72%

According to my staking plan:

3 units to win 3.75 units


Let the fun begin.

BOL

[sLOw]

Youzhny got owned, so that's a loss.

I think I have found a hole in the system, I only focus on one player but there might be value on BOTH players so it's a bit difficult.

I will be looking into this but I think that I won't use this system as it's very risky.

[dropshot]

Unlucky start, but as we know it is not a sprint .

There are many different staking plans out there, but I have chosen a very simple one. Most of my bets are flat bets, but when I have something that stands out I bet double. So I guess you can say my staking plan is 1 or 2 units.

When I'm analyzing matches I always match the players up against each other. This is how I do it:

I accept that in one match there is 100 % to be shared between the two players since there is no draw. This is the formula I have come up with after having tried different ones during 10 years of tennis investments. I will not be able to trust one strictly statistical model, since there are so many intangibles involved when two human beings are going to exchange hundreds of shots. So there is a big amount of gut feeling involved.

Allround quality is worth 35 %
Surface ability is worth 25 %
Form is worth 15 %
Matchup is worth 25 %

So if I was going to match Nadal and Federer on clay it would look something like this:

Allround quality: Nadal 15 Federer 20
Surface ability: Nadal 20 Federer 5
Form: Nadal 10 Federer 5 (this could be different, but usually Nadal is at his best during the clay season while Federer typically wins one masters while reaching semis or finals in the others.
Matchup Nadal 20 Federer 5 (I feel that this is worth one quarter and this is not something you can know from statistical data. You actually have to know that Federer is struggling on backhand against Nadal on clay and that also his backhand isn't hitting heavily enough to do any damage against a spin player like Nadal. If you play tennis yourself and you are hitting relatively flat and you are facing a player with heavy spin you know what I am talking about.)

So we are ending up with a 65-35 advantage to Nadal. What I then do is take 100/65 to find lowest value odds which is 1.54. I take 2/1.54 to find my advantage at these odds which is 30 %. So we are ending at the same result but using different strategies . Typically you are not getting more than 1.45 on Nadal against Federer on clay so there will probably be no value.

Good luck on the season!

Cheers

[sLOw]

Very interesting dropshot!

Indeed, if we would only trust numbers we would go broke one day.


Yeah, the staking plan is important! I am glad for the offseason at the moment, trying to boost my bankroll with other sports. It's also a good change if you bet on one sport the whole year you will find it difficult to keep the momentum.

Same to you!
Cheers