Jerus's ATP Fantasy

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Introduction

Hi all, and welcome to my thread! The title is a little rubbish, I know, but I'm lacking inspiration at the moment, so hopefully I'll think of a good one by the end of the month, when this all kicks off! ;D

I share the same philosophy as others in only betting sports that I have a huge knowledge/passion about, as this is the only way, in my opinion, that one can even hope to have an edge over any bookie.

Therefore, with that in mind, 99% of my bets will be on ATP tennis - a sport I have followed very closely for the last 10 years (and bet on "seriously" for the last 2 years). I do watch WTA, but my interest is mainly what is on my screen, rather than in tournament results, stats etc. I'm also quite passionate about F1 - I get to see most of the season's races, and I know a little bit about the drivers, constructors etc...so you may see a few bets from me, on this.

I enjoy reading thoughts from other posters, so please feel free to post comments of support / suggestions for improvement / criticism - but, for the latter, please keep this to a constructive nature.

Best wishes for 2008!

J

[mrintensity]

Good luck J. Nice to see you also like F1, I'm really into it too, went to a race in 2006 which was really cool. Look forward to seeing your bets on it, I'll be contributing in that area too.

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Thanks mate. Yeah I've always been hoping to get to Silverstone, so hopefully one day (maybe 2009) I will fulfil that dream.

I also watch a number of snooker matches, but I don't consider my knowledge good enough to really consider betting on it too often.

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Strategy & Target for 2008

Strategy.

Stakes range up to a maximum of 2,00 units. I will rarely make a maximum bet as, obviously, I have to be nearly 100% confident the bet will hit. Given the wonderful depth in men's tennis (making the sport so great to watch, in my opinion), "banker" matches are, in my opinion, hard to come by. It is, perhaps, for this reason, that the majority of my bets are on 2.00+ odds, and I would usually play these with a flat 0,75 unit stake. Speculative bets will be staked with less than 0,75 units, while outcomes I'm more confident about will see greater than 0,75 unit stakes.


Target for 2008.

The above strategy has brought me a season-ending profit for both of my two years in this business. My yield, for 2007, was +27,13 units, and, given that I felt I had wasted 13,00 - 15,00 units on some poor decisions, I'm hoping to limit that waste in 2008. Therefore, my target is going to +40,00 units, which I think is neither too easy nor unreachable. Profitable seasons are NEVER guaranteed, so if I can reach anything near my target, I'll be very happy.

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ATP 2008!

I posted these in the "2008 season bets" thread, about a week ago. However, since these are, officially, my first bets of the 2008 ATP season, I feel that I should post them here, as a formal record.

(1) Andy Murray - top 10 RACE finish @ 1.80 [VC] (0,75 units) - there is little doubt that Murray belongs in the top 5...he has one of the best service returns in the game, and his varied style should land him some strong results on all surfaces. However, I've only gone small on this as: (a) Murray is injury-prone; (b) Murray will be coachless for a little while / working with a new team...might struggle for consistency in the early part of 2008.

(2) Djokovic - top 5 RACE finish @ 1.80 [VC] (1,80 units) - a stunning 2007 for Djokovic, and, provided he stays healthy, I see little changing for him in 2008. The very solid baseliners (e.g. Nalbandian, Ferrer etc) are most likely to hurt him, but they will have a hard job posting more consistently excellent results than him (particularly off the clay). I'd be expecting another top 3 finish.

(3) Federer - to finish RACE #1 @ 1.65 [VC] (2,00 units) - Federer may have lost more times than expected, in 2007, but he still reigned supreme in the biggest events. I don't really expect this to change in 2008, and, while Nadal, Djokovic and Nalbandian are his nearest serious rivals, I'm really not convinced that they have the consistency (in results) necessary to eclipse him by the year-end. Federer is very sensible with his scheduling, thereby minimising the chances of injury lay-off...while Nadal continues to run himself into the ground, and Djokovic will have used up his "injury time out" quota by mid-February.

(4) Wawrinka to finish higher than Del Potro in RACE @ 1.80 [VC] (1,50 units) - for starters, Stan lost the first half of the 2007 season thanks to a nasty knee injury, and a slow recovery to match fitness. He is a little erratic (particularly on serve), but he possesses a nice baseline game and likes to grind down opponents in long rallies - a style that is quite effective on most surfaces, these days. Del Potro has a fair bit of potential, himself, but his two main weaknesses, for me, are: (1) mental; (2) movement (he is 6'5) - and both are likely to hinder him on the clay, for instance. Many of the top players possess strong baseline games, making them a poor match for the Argentine as he isn't so quick to change direction, and his baseline game still isn't fully developed yet. Essentially, I see a clear edge for Wawrinka, who is more likely to reach a few SF and finals, while Del Potro may struggle to reach the latter stages of many events. My prediction model gives a 40-50 RACE points advantage to the Swiss.

(5) ITALIAN #1 (RACE) - NOT Starace, Volandri or Seppi @ 7.00 [VC] (0,40 units) - this is a VERY interesting bet, in my opinion. I don't consider ANY of the top 3 Italians to be particularly strong players...none of them should really be challenging for the big points in the big events, meaning that they are, essentially, vying for rankings places from 40 downwards. This makes it somewhat easier for a new kid to make an impression...and Bolelli, for instance, could be that man. He doesn't stand up so well to the most powerful players (e.g. Berdych) but he possesses a nice baseline game and a reasonable serve...and can only really get better, in my opinion. Anyway, I think there is a good chance that ALL Italians jostle between ATP and challenger events...so the RACE battle could become quite close, although one of Starace, Volandri or Seppi may finish Italian #1 on the ENTRY ranking (irrelevant for this bet) courtesy of some stronger challenger results. Worth a go, in my opinion, with small stakes.


I'm fairly confident in the first 4 bets, provided that all the guys stay healthy. As the staking suggests, the 5th bet is more speculative, but I can definitely see a chance for a lower-ranked Italian to finish Italian #1 in the Race, even if he doesn't finish top, for his country, in the Entry ranking.

In fact, I was interested to find, today, that the odds on each bet have now been slashed.

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Unibet are currently offering approx. 100 bets on the Entry ranking, for next year - e.g. Almagro to finish higher/lower than 25.5? I've drawn up a list of about 12 possible bets, and, when I've gone into them all in more detail, I will select what I perceive to be the best 3 or 5, and post them here.

There will be a fair bit of money tied up for the year (which is a little annoying), but if it looks like a good long-term investment, I guess that the wait could be worth its weight in gold.

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Further to the information I provided on Canas's injury in the "2008 season bets" thread, I took the following:

(6) Canas to finish lower than 18.5 @ 1.94 [Unibet] (1,50 units) - okay, worst case scenario is that he is out for maybe 4 months. Given how high his ranking was at the end of 2007, he'll be automatically entered into all of the mandatory events for at least the first half of the season. Should he miss any of these, he will be awarded 0 points for each, and won't be able to make up for these lost points with extra optional events. Even if he manages to return to the Tour earlier, he knows that the majority of points he has to defend are in the first half of the season (e.g. winner Costa do Sauipe; finalist IW; finalist Barca; QF French Open), which means that he will most likely have to play catch-up in the second half of the season. Given that his grinding style is most suited to the slower surfaces, he is likely to struggle to go deep enough in the draws, consistently, in the grass season, on US hardcourts and in European winter indoors. What's more, there is a good chance that he could be unseeded in a number of the more high-profile events, meaning that his chances of drawing a higher-ranked player, early, are so much higher. Going with a fairly big stake on this as I was a little concerned about his poor finish to 2007 (when he was fit), and coming back from a wrist injury can take time.

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There doesn't seem to be any OFFICIAL news just yet, but it is possible that Starace has been suspended for the first 4-6 weeks of the 2008 season (and fined €30,000) for betting on tennis matches (although not his own, or any matches taking place in his events).

Sources: www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=114251 and www.gazzetta.it/Sport_Vari/Te.../starace.shtml

As concerns my season-long Italian bet, this doesn't really help me as Starace was never going to be a major force during the Australian hard court "season." Still, I guess that it gives Bolelli, Fognini and others a slight head-start! Not too worried about Volandri, unless he gets some very soft draws.

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Okay, I've decided that I'm just going to update this thread on a near-weekly basis, posting the progress of my 6 season-long bets, and also some interesting stats on my 2008 betting yield (be it positive or negative).

First update to come at the end of the week.

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2008 bank: 3-3 (+0,62 units [+10.5% ROI])

Week 1: 3-3 (+0,62 units [+10.5% RIO])


Season Betting Update*
*See above for the 6 season bets as taken.

Best possible start!

Murray (bet #1) won Qatar, so begins 2008 as the Race #1, with 50 points! Wawrinka (bet #4) made the most of what could be considered a largely kind draw to reach the Qatar final, while Del Potro slumped in R1 of Adelaide - so, Stan leads 35-0 in their season points playoff! With this run, he will also rise from #36 to #28 in the Monday ATP rankings, meaning, crucially, that he will secure a seeding for the Australian Open. Dropping from #44 to #50, Del Potro won't.

However, the Italians (bet #5) did disappoint me. Fognini withdrew from Chennai, while Bolelli (as expected) slumped in Adelaide - 0 pts for both. As Volandri won a round in Qatar, he is top of the Italian leaderboard with 5 pts.

Canas (bet #6), obviously, wasn't in action this week, so that is good for my bet. However, I do wish him a speedy recovery.

Federer (bet #3) and Djokovic (bet #2) weren't in ATP action this week, although Djokovic's minor back problems during the Hopman Cup may be of some concern ahead of the Australian Open.

[sLOw]

Great start there mate! Keep it up;D

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admin said:

Great start there mate! Keep it up;D

Thanks dude. Not the most impressive start you'll ever see (for a week's betting), but I'm pleased to have made a positive start to the year. Given the nature of the week's results, things could have been so much worse! But value is the most important thing, and I'm happy to have dodged a number of bullets (e.g. Malisse/Youzhny, Hewitt/Tsonga, Nieminen/Llodra).

Ecstatic about the season bets, though. Could do with Federer defending the AUS Open, and Djokovic reaching QF/SF/F stages, as he should, if fit enough.