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Post by mrintensity on Jan 2, 2008 12:35:43 GMT -5
Santoro doing OK but Davy took the first set. I'm going out now so going to leave a back of Davy up @ 1.2, see if I get lucky (currently around 1.07-1.09).
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 2, 2008 15:31:36 GMT -5
Paszek @ 2.44 v Kirilenko. Really like Paszek in this one. She has much more potential and a much greater optimul level. I think this match up will be good for her and she can really dominate most of the rallies. Kirilenko improved quite a bit last year, and she's the more consistant performer, but I still think Paszek is worth a shot at this price.
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 2, 2008 16:41:48 GMT -5
Zverev @ 1.8 v Spadea. Zverev finished last year excellently winning the challenger in Dnrpropetrovsk beating Becker, Canas and Tursunov which must have been one of the toughest challengers of the year. He's 20 and has a lot of potential - as well as a nice lefty serve. He got a solid win in the first round and I make him a decent favourite here. Spadea struggles to get wins on the tour nowadays (2-5 after US Open last year) and a win over Grosjean doesn't say much given the decline he showed last year. For me Zverev can have a good year and get into the top 50 at least, and he should be around 1.5.
Peer @ 2.1 Coral v Safina. Just like the price here. Both have struggled a bit so far but I rate Peer as a much better player on hard courts. Hard to account for form here so I'm going on a gut feeling. Safina has a great record here, winning last year, beating Peer in the semis, but Peer was a tie break away from winning in straght sets. That made the H2H 3-0 to Safina, but the first two were when Peer was much more of an unknown.
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Post by nikolaysconscience on Jan 2, 2008 20:01:54 GMT -5
Agree with your bets and am on Peer at about evens.
Good Luck.
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 3, 2008 6:19:57 GMT -5
2-1 overnight, not bad.
Quickly, just gone for Cilic @ 2.26 v Mahut. He showed good fight in the first round and has a lot of potential on quick courts. Finished last year well and looks to be showing more consistancy.
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 3, 2008 6:59:59 GMT -5
Trying Ljubicic again at a very respectable 1.56. I thought he was excellent in the first round and has a cracking 15-2 record here. Kohlscheiber has had a really soft draw playing Hernandez and Volandri and I don't think he'll be able to cope with Ljubicic on this surface. H2H is 2-0 to Ljubicic both in 2006.
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 3, 2008 10:38:43 GMT -5
2-0 this afternoon, quite pleased with how this first week is going.
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Post by smash on Jan 3, 2008 14:56:52 GMT -5
If you could post some of this in the weekly discussion threads, that would be good...not the livebetting stuff though, obviously. You made some interesting points on a number of players, and this is the sort of material that encourages others to get involved with discussion.
Without sounding harsh, this is where personal threads have their problems, imo.
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 3, 2008 15:36:28 GMT -5
Right, yeah, completely forgot about the weekly thread
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 3, 2008 18:05:55 GMT -5
Malisse @ 1.83 WillHill v Youzhny. Last year Malisse was awesome in winning Chennai and Delray Beach (including wins over Nadal and Blake) but then had a nightmare with a wrist injury keeping him out for 7 months and he had a little struggle coming back. However, he looks to be OK this week and really needs a bit effort at definding his title as his ranking is already down to 109. I think the form here is important and should give him a lot of confidence. Youzhny was very good last year, but not sure about this week. Had a crazy match with Roger-Vasselin (who let's be honest he should have crushed) going down 5-0 in the first set then winning it 7-5, losing the second 6-1 then coming back 6-2 in the third. No idea what was going on, but clearly he was having some problems - on a quick surface like Chennai, you don't lose serve that many times that easily without some sort of problem. H2H is 3-1 to Malisse with Youzhny taking the first meeting.
Haase @ 2.42 v Cilic. Willing to take the dog in this one. Backed Cilic against Mahut and he got a great win, but I think he should be more like 1.8 in this contest. Haase got a great win against Baghdatis, then backed it up against Zovko where he could easily have put in a dodgy performance. Haase has a lot of potential and I'm willing to have a go at this price.
Li @ 2.37 Stan James v Schnyder. Li has had a couple of excellent wins this week over Bammer and Vaidisova and has the perfect game to frustrate Schnyder. Schnyder got a good win over Mauresmo in the last round but I don't think Amelie is going to be a force this year and maybe Schnyder is being overrated in this game. H2H is 2-1 to Li, all close matches. Think this one is definately close to 50/50.
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 4, 2008 7:37:10 GMT -5
Nice win from Li to start the day ;D
Ljubicic @ 1.89 v Wawrinka. I was checking this match out last night and virtually everyone was tipping Wawrinka to win. Hence Ljubicic has drifted from 1.73 to 1.89 - why the hell didn't I lay Ljub last night, it was so obvious? Anyway, I thought the 1.73-1.75 was fair so I'm going to take Ljubicic today. Wawrinka has appeared to be excellent this week, but he hasn't been on TV so I don't think people can be that sure. He's beaten Martin and C Rochus which should be easy then trashed Calleri - but looking at the scoreboard it did seem very easy, not sure Calleri was 100%. As I've said before I thought Ljubicic was excellent in his first match, then got a walkover and had a bit of a struggle against Kohlschreiber. I think that match will help him as he had to come through some tough moments and Wawrinka has a similar style of game to Kohl, although he does most things a little better. Ljubicic now stands at 16-2 in this event, and will be very tough to knock over. H2H is 3-0 to Ljubicic but Wawrinka has improved since all of them.
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 4, 2008 9:44:47 GMT -5
H2H 2-2 with Murray winning the last two but that was when he was really hot early last year. Don't think he's at that level this week, and had a couple of tough moments losing a first set to Schuettler and a big struggle in the first set against Johansson. Davydenko has been better than I expected this week. His serve looks a lot better than later last year and in general I've been impressed this week. Seen Murray drifting a touch today, which I think is fair - lol, just checked and the late money is coming for Murray which is a bit strange as he'd been going out for the past couple of hours. I think Davydenko has a good chance in this, especially early on, he could well take the first set. also note Murray was tolding his back a bit yesterday, no idea if it will be affecting him today.
Actually, just layed Murray @ 1.65 as it should be over 1.70 like it was before.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 4, 2008 11:29:05 GMT -5
Hope you managed to close your position...?
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Post by mrintensity on Jan 4, 2008 15:17:14 GMT -5
No I didn't. really stupid as the price on Murray was huge after the break. Was really stupid, my mistake. Awful day with Malisse and Haase also losing. Still OK on the week, but most of the earlier profits wiped out. Hopefully be able to sort it out over the weekend.
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Post by sLOw on Jan 4, 2008 16:49:39 GMT -5
Shame! May you tail me on laying Muzz' to get after break/set Wawa?
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