2008 - TB's Year Of Glory

[sLOw]

2008 P/L to date

1'792.96€

Weekly P/L

W1 - 1'128.64€
W2 - 664.32€

[flipmode]

Thanks for the post Lo,
Purposeful stuff and a set strategy I have painfully found out are the only ways to go in our profession...
Unfortunately most traders/gamblers are crap @ actually sticking to a set plan obviously due to the unpredictable nature of the beast.
I've gotten a lot more strict with my actions and goals now and currently compiling a list of all the stupid, not so stupid and unaviodable mistakes I've made so as to try not to repeat them...
presently I only bet on tennis, NBA and further down the line English premiership, focusing on your areas of expertise is the number 2 rule, number one been DISIPLINE!

Every little addition helps to forster that solid ground/position we all want to constantly be on.

Some time ago a BF forumite (KGO) contributed some suggestions (below) on this topic and I have found that if used well will work for everyone in their own way....


1.) Obtain the quickest pictures to live.

2.) keepgreeningout

3.) Be prepared to take losses.

4.) Keep a record of your P & L. (This will make you more likely to carry out No.3 when neccessary. E.g. "Oh well I've made £1,000 today, so am gonna go red of £200 in each rather than risk £2,000)

5.) Be DISCIPLINED!

6.) Keep a note of what works, and what doesn't. I have printed out a 5 page pamflet which I read every day before I start trading, which reminds me of mistakes I have made (so not to repeat them), and the things I have done that have worked.

7.) If you find one sport really profitable compared to others, stick to that sport. This will free up your head and time to concentrate on your specialist sport.

8.) Start small, doesn't matter how small. In the long term, confidence, and a decent size balance to trade from are most important. So be prepared to build both up at first.


goodluck all..

[smash]

Great posts by both of you...I, for one, can relate to so much of that.

I disagree with only one of Lo's comments - "don't look for value only." In my opinion, the only way that you can win, long-term, is to be betting value. That said, value can come in all kinds of odds - e.g. as low as 1.20s. But if a match seems to be 50-50, there is no sense siding with 1.50s in most of these situations.

Looking forward to seeing how all of this will pan out!

[dropshot]

All of you have reasonable arguments, but once in a while I come across things I don't agree with. Jerus is saying 'But if a match seems to be 50-50, there is no sense siding with 1.50s in most of these situations'. First of all, if a match is 50-50 there is NEVER any sense backing 1.5 and ALWAYS a MUST to back 2.5, 2.6 or whatever you get. Another word I don't like is SEEMS. A mistake I've done many times is getting too sloppy in my analysis, and then many times it seems like there is value. Had I done better work in my analysis I many times find out there is no value at all, and I shouldn't bet. So my number one rule is always be 100 % sure I have done a good job analyzing the match. The only thing sure in betting is that nothing is 100 %, but you can be sure you have given your best effort or not. If you have done your best and you know you are good from previous experience you should always trust your percentages.

I agree that you need to set up rules for yourselves, cause if you don't you will make the same mistakes over and over again. I remember as a rookie I made the rule 'Never bet on one outcome more than once'. If you are betting parlays it is often tempting to include one match in several parlays, but what you then are doing is betting maybe 3 units on a match that is really only worth 1 unit, and you risk erasing bets on other matches because of this match. So singles is most of the time your best choice. Another thing I don't like is putting limitations on my investing. I have never had any 'max 3 bets a day' or 'stop when I have lost this much for the week'. This is not a sprint so we are not working on a weekly basis. If you have lost your 150 $ by Wednesday, you risk missing out on good value bets the rest of the week. The clue is that your units are small enough so that a losing streak won't hurt you too much. Losing streaks are often the result of tiredness, and then there is of course no reason to keep going. Many people, including myself, are trying to beat losing streaks that are the result of being out of energy. Then the best thing you can do is rest. Another thing you should do is trust your numbers and bet accordingly. If you percentages says 2 units, then bet 2 units. Don't be afraid of higher odds because then your theoretical advantage is taken away. I am sceptical to 'speculative' bets. Either you know you have value or you don't.

I only have one restriction regarding what odds to bet on and that is never bet above odds 4 in WTA. ATP is different because the level is much more even than in the WTA and there are big surprises on a more regular basis. I did some statistics work on the WTA in 2006 and it showed that underdogs at 4 or higher only hit 8-9 % of the time. Of course there are exceptions and I'm not saying I never break this rule, but this is what I try to follow. This might look boring, but to me that is not a bad thing. We are doing this to make money. If we did it for the excitement of it, then there would be no idea doing it because then the bookies are sure to beat you. When I started up betting it was often for the excitement I did it, but as I've grown with it it is more and more a profession and then you don't want to waste your money!

To sum it up, always do your best, bet only on value and do not limit your possibilities.

Cheers

[smash]

Yes, I agree with all of that dropshot, and thanks for taking the time to post it!

Singles are, indeed, the best way to go these days...I sometimes do doubles, but no more risk than that.

I also don't agree with the limitations on investing...as you say, you could be missing out on good value in the rest of the week. The fact is, if you: (a) have solid knowledge of your sport; (b) always bet value; (c) have control over staking and the number of bets you place...you should be able to ride out any slump that comes your way, even if it lasts for as long as a couple of months. Finishing EVERY week in profit is next to impossible.

[sLOw]

Tennis kickoff 0-0-0

Looking into the inplay odds offered at the moment.

Australia leading the tie 1-0 after a huge win by Molik. The aussies are the clearly better doubles team so they should get the edge in the doubles. The tie could be over if Luczak shows what he can do as he does have the game to upset Berdych. The skinny guy is able to serve huge, has a wicked forehand and his backhand probably is the best shot. He's the type of guy who can make Berdych go nuts. Anyway I think the aussies will get it done in the doubles.

So I got odds of 2.40ish on a doubles victory for Australia, fair odds.

INPLAY

Selection - Australia to win the tie
Odds - 2.424
Stake - **BET 70.19€

www.stopgamblingandstartbetting.blogspot.com

[sLOw]

[sLOw]

Hopman Cup 30.12.2007

Tie - France against Argentina
Match - Arnaud Clement against Juan Ignacio Chela

Clement is 37-28 on indoors while Chela is at 11-14, I'm rating Clement as a pretty decent indoor player who can beat most of the players when he plays well. Chela on the other hand doesn't like the types of player who keep mixing up their game, coming in using dropshots, moving him around. I expect Clement to play serve and volley quite a lot as well as C&C on the Chela serve.

Looking at their record in Australia, Clement is at 31-21 and Chela at 25-15 both doing pretty decent.

In my opinion Clement shouldn't be the dog!


Selection - Arnaud Clement
Odds - 2.197
Stake - **BET 77.68€

[sLOw]

That was a shocker!
1-1-0 / + 22.25€

[sLOw]

Adelaide International 2008

Steve Darcis - Sam Querrey

Querrey has had huge problems stringing a few matches together and all of his performances off late have been pretty crappy, as soon as he misses a few first serves he starts thinking too much and then his whole game falls apart. Darcis has been injured a few weeks but he is now fully fit to start the season, his motivation has to be skyhigh as he won his first tournament last season, yet his ranking is there to be improved and why not with a good run in down under so that he can get into many claycourt events next year. His match at the US Open against Tommy Haas showed that he is a talented guy with great skill and a beautiful one handed backhand that is a huge shot even off the clay.

I rate this match 50-50 but giving the slight edge to the belgian.

Selection - Darcis
Odds - 2.66
Stake - ***BET 95.81€



Michael Russell - Juan Martin Del Potro

Interesting matchup we have on our hands. Russell a great defender, puts up a fight and is safe off the ground. The serve and probably the power of his shots are the only factors that prevent him from being a top player. On the other hand we have a young gun who is yet to show us that he can go toe to toe with the stars of the business. Both have suffered serval injuries, Del Potro retired many times last year. Russell had to retire in their last encounter at the Davidoff Swiss Indoors back in october. The heat will play a major role as well as Del Potro's fitness ain't that good. One of the keys will be the serve, when Del Potro serves lights out, Russell won't be able to get balls back and then it's gameover. BUT having followed lots of Del Potro's matches, he tends to simply give up once he is behind, so the start of the match will be the most important thing.

Predicting this will go to 3 tough sets with Russell coming out on top.

Selection - Michael Russell
Odds - 3.50
Stake - **BET 64.67€

missed out the movement but still happy with the odds I got.





I wish you all the best for the new season,

TB

[sLOw]

Useless performance by Darcis. Quite right with Russell tough, lol!

Back with more later!

[sLOw]

Doha 31.12.2007

Igor Andreev - Thomas Johansson

Johansson leads their H2H 1-0, this victory was a few years back and I don't think that Johansson is at the same level he was when he was a top player. I was expecting odds of 1.4ish on Andreev. The russian has lots of points to gain as he was injured last year and that should be an extra motivation to perform well and sneak into the top 20.

Selection - Andreev
Odds - 1.74
Stake - 93.61€




Stefan Koubek - Ivan Ljubicic

Ljubicic has the slight edge in the H2H but has not played well since ages. Koubek has final points to defend (Chennai), he will be the type of player who will get every ball back. It's more of a Ljubo fade than a Koubek back.

Selection - Stefan Koubek
Odds - 2.59
Stake - 92.23€

[sLOw]

Had a good laugh there...

[sLOw]

And another stupid move, backed Seppi @2.00 for a loss of 41.50€

[sLOw]

Another loss.

For the next couple of weeks I won't have much time to post my bets, will update it later.